A report in Thursday's The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reveals that American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is actually reaping the benefits of its risky bets in the credit-default swap market.
AIG was forced to shell out billions to Wall Street banks amid last year's credit crisis, as the assets backed by the credit-default swaps plummeted in value. However, the market's reversal of fortune means that banking heavyweights, such as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), are now returning collateral to the infamous insurance giant.
"It isn't clear exactly how much collateral has flowed back to AIG, or how much still is outstanding," reports the Journal's Liam Pleven, but "the amount of collateral AIG's trading partners held declined by more than $3 billion between the end of the first and second quarters, according to AIG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission."
AIG is up about 3% on the heels of this report. The stock is currently hovering near $36, pinned between support from its rising 80-day moving average and short-term resistance from its 10-day trendline.
Thanks to AIG's choppy price action in recent months, traders have adopted a skeptical attitude toward the shares. Short interest on the stock rose by more than 7% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for a hefty 16.4% of the equity's float.
Likewise, option players on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 1.03 puts for every call on AIG during the past 10 trading days. This ratio ranks higher than 84% of comparable readings taken during the past year, suggesting that demand has been heavier than usual for bearish bets on the stock.
Overall, this predominant pessimism leaves AIG well-positioned to benefit from good news, such as today's Journal report -- as the weaker bearish hands are shaken out, the stock enjoys a nice pop on the charts. However, the security's remarkably volatile technical performance, along with lingering fundamental issues, mean that an AIG trade is appropriate only for those with the heartiest of risk appetites.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-29-2009 @ 12:25PM
martialoffrance said...
free money for AIG. Give it back to the TAX PAYERS!