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Coach's shares are headed north

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Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) has a winning 'accessible luxury' formula, which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for company, first recommended on April 13, 2009 at a price of $18.22. If you bought COH in April, you're up an impressive 71%.

Most investors are aware that in the era of the 'frugal consumer' that's driven by stagnant incomes, difficult labor market conditions, and an uncertain economic recovery timetable, the retail sector is best avoided.


But Coach, a leading designer and marketer of high-quality accessories, is an exception, due to its lucrative niche: 'accessible luxury.'

The latest Coach positives? Handbag market penetration is increasing, and expansions in the Japan and China markets will enhance global market share gains in the years ahead. Just as significant: Coach has prudently decreased prices on selected items; even so, profit margins remain impressive. The bottom line: Coach's shares are headed north. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for COH are $2.07 to $2.26.

Technically, Coach's stock chart is strong – an uptrend with only minor, constructive pull-backs, and the stock recently cleared psychologically-significant resistance at $30. A pull-back this week to about $32-33 represents a good entry point to establish/add to a position.

Finally, the Sell/Stop Loss has been raised to $18.50, or to just above cost, from $8. Hence, this is a zero-risk trade for your April-bought shares.

Stock Analysis: Coach Inc. is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 50% position in COH now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your COH position before December 2009. Revised Sell/Stop Loss if you bought shares in this company: $18.50.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 02:18 AM

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