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Dean Foods (DF) issues weak Q4 guidance

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DF logoDean Foods (NYSE: DF - option chain) stock traded lower Monday after the company reported Q3 earnings, posting an adjusted profit of 34 cents per share on revenue of $2.77 billion. While this beat analysts' expectations of 33 cents per share, the revenue targets were $2.94 billion. DF also forecast fourth-quarter EPS of 36 cents, missing analysts' projections of 39 cents. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on DF.

Monday, DF opened at $17.82. In early trading, the stock hit a high of $17.96 and a low of $16.43. As of 11:20, DF was trading at $16.59, down $1.64 (-9.0%). The chart for DF looks neutral and S&P gives DF a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $20 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in five months as long as DF is below $20 at March expiration. Dean Foods would have to rise by more than 19% before we would start to lose money.

DF hasn't been above $20 since August and has shown resistance around $19.75 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DF.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 01:24 AM

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