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Bloomberg News took a recent poll of its subscribers. Here are some highlights of the survey:
- Only 31% of investors saw investment opportunities in the stock market, down from 35% in the July survey.
- Worldwide, investors see the U.S. as the weakest link in the world economy. Twenty five percent of respondents see an unemployment rate of 11% in the U.S. next year.
- Respondents see China and India as the most promising markets and commodities are the asset of choice.
- Real Estate and bonds are out of favor, with 40% saying that bonds will have the worst returns over the next year.
- Investors and analysts in Asia are the most bullish, while U.S. and European investors are the most cautious.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% next year, with China up 9% and India up 6.4%.
- 75% of respondents describe the global economy as stable or improving.
- 55% of respondents in their respective countries are forecasting higher interest rates next year.
- More than half of respondents forecast the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury Note to rise to 4.7% from its present 3.42%.
- Oil is expected to rise perhaps to $100.00 per barrel next year.
- The best picks for next year are China, Brazil and India.
- The U.S. market has the most downside risk next year.
- Investors have turned pessimistic on the U.S. government policy with a reading of 60%, up from 55% in July
- 20% of respondents expect banks to be in worse shape next year.
- Respondents see big deficits and high unemployment as hampering the U.S. economy.
- 75% of U.S. respondents think the dollar should remain the world's reserve currency, while only half of their counterparts in Europe and Asia feel that way.
These data are quite extensive and will take time to digest. Yet, the overwhelming conclusion is that the influence of the U.S. is waning as a world leader and that Asia and Brazil are leading the pack. Many believe that the money flow will go to these countries in the next few years, setting in motion a slow shift of assets away from the U.S.
Do you agree that the U.S. is losing its place in the world?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-03-2009 @ 11:52AM
willow reed said...
Yes, the USA is losing its place in the world on nearly every front. We don't have a manufacturing base to speak of, we offer "services" instead. What the heck is that? Everything that can be outsourced is either already outsourced or in the process thereof.
I think we need to bring back our manufacturing. The problem is when you can make it cheaper overseas, due to lack of unions, clear air acts, other sorts of rules and regs, why come back to the good ol' USA?
Really now.....what thinking person would actually have ANYTHING made here?
What can we do about this? I am not sure. But I think a step in the right direction would be protectionist tariffs on imports, unions getting the heck out of here, and also tearing down some of the anti-pollution standards.
Sad to say but I think that is the only way we can compete with China/India/E.U.
Unless they begin to raise their own standards of living to end up with all those aforementioned items. ..
Personally, am learning Mandarin. I think that is going to be the way of the world soon. I strongly suggest you do the same.
11-03-2009 @ 2:55PM
Iridium said...
We can not bring back American manufacturing unless the entire retail landscape is demolished. No American manufacturer can produce products with enough margin to satisfy American mass retailers.
SO much margin is being eaten up by the corporate goliaths that most people can not even comprehend how much they are overpaying for everyday items.
That $50 retail coffee maker is made in china for less than $5. $20 toys are made for less than $1. That pair of $100 running shoes, made in China for less than $7 a pair. Clothing, forget it $39 retail for a shirt produced for $.75 in Bangladesh. People wonder how department stores can stay in business when they discount product 75% to sell. GUESS WHAT THEY ARE STILL MAKING PROFIT!!! 75% off still means profit because they paid so little in the first place.
In Vietnam you can have a hand tailored cashmere suit made for you for less than $80. The same suits are made for high end American department stores where they retail for $1000.
Anyone that pays over $150 for a wedding dress for their daughter is a moron. If you go to a bridal shop, unless they hand make the dress there, they are buying dresses bought in China for around $40-80 and selling them to you for $600-1000. You can go online and order a dress directly from the shop in China. You'll pay $80 for a $800 dress and pay around $80 to have it shipped internationally. Many of the shops take American Express cards. If something happens you won't be liable for the charge.
Everything we buy should cost half what it does. Just like commodity contracts, a product might touch a dozen or more hands all taking a cut before the product finally is bought by the consumer. Retailers and distributors have become accustomed to this practice. We could produce American made products and sell for the exact same price, still providing profit. The problem is that an American company can not provide enough profit for all those who touch a product before it makes it to the shelf.
A $.15 increase in production cost balloons to a $5-8 increase in MSRP by the time a product makes it through the American retail system.
11-04-2009 @ 2:48PM
ij70 said...
Wait until they introduce Value Added Tax. We still have some manufacturing, not a lot, but some. Once Value Added Tax is law, that will kill manufacturing for sure.
Tariffs on imports, specifically from China, is the only way to bring manufacturing back. I would love to hear another option, but there is not one.
Green technology is not going to bring manufacturing because things like solar panels and batteries are made from very dangerous and toxic materials. The Greenies will kill these manufacturing areas without any help from the market.