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Are stocks about to get routed?

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Bloomberg News took a recent poll of its subscribers. Here are some highlights of the survey:

  • Only 31% of investors saw investment opportunities in the stock market, down from 35% in the July survey.
  • Worldwide, investors see the U.S. as the weakest link in the world economy. Twenty five percent of respondents see an unemployment rate of 11% in the U.S. next year.
  • Respondents see China and India as the most promising markets and commodities are the asset of choice.
  • Real Estate and bonds are out of favor, with 40% saying that bonds will have the worst returns over the next year.
  • Investors and analysts in Asia are the most bullish, while U.S. and European investors are the most cautious.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% next year, with China up 9% and India up 6.4%.
  • 75% of respondents describe the global economy as stable or improving.
  • 55% of respondents in their respective countries are forecasting higher interest rates next year.
  • More than half of respondents forecast the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury Note to rise to 4.7% from its present 3.42%.
  • Oil is expected to rise perhaps to $100.00 per barrel next year.
  • The best picks for next year are China, Brazil and India.
  • The U.S. market has the most downside risk next year.
  • Investors have turned pessimistic on the U.S. government policy with a reading of 60%, up from 55% in July
  • 20% of respondents expect banks to be in worse shape next year.
  • Respondents see big deficits and high unemployment as hampering the U.S. economy.
  • 75% of U.S. respondents think the dollar should remain the world's reserve currency, while only half of their counterparts in Europe and Asia feel that way.

These data are quite extensive and will take time to digest. Yet, the overwhelming conclusion is that the influence of the U.S. is waning as a world leader and that Asia and Brazil are leading the pack. Many believe that the money flow will go to these countries in the next few years, setting in motion a slow shift of assets away from the U.S.

Do you agree that the U.S. is losing its place in the world?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 04:13 PM

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