The latter half of this week before Friday's market open is perhaps not the best time to gauge the U.S. stock market's strength. And the reason is obvious enough: look for institutional investors (IIs) to take some money off the table ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll employment report for October from the U.S. Labor Department.
Institutions have notched solid stock gains over the past 4-6 months and some investors, particularly those with short-term models, may decide to take some of those gains prior to the job report, as a way to protect those profits in the event of a market sell-off if the employment data is worse-than-expected. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast that the U.S. economy lost 175,000 jobs in October – an improvement from the off-the-table, gargantuan monthly job losses recorded during the financial crisis' acute stage earlier this year, but still a large monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost 263,000 jobs in September and has lost more than 7.2 million since the recession started in December 2007.
Also in September, the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.8% from 9.7% in August; economists surveyed forecast the rate to rise to 9.9% in October.
Further, a September job loss total higher than 250,000 will spark renewed concern about a possible double-dip recession - and a double-dip recession and Dow 10,000 are not compatible, to say the least.
Hence, don't attach too much significance to U.S. stock market dips prior to Friday, as a portion of it is profit-taking and positioning ahead of the jobs statistic.
After the September payroll data is released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST, the Dow's level will be more-telling, as investors will have a better idea concerning whether the nation is winning the battle against job losses, or if even more public policy action is needed to help end the nation's longest and worst job drought in more than 25 years.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-03-2009 @ 11:21PM
chex781391 said...
The numbers will be bad for another couple of hundred thousand newly unemployed. Watch the press put a positive spin on this, Gee, aren't things just wonderful. The DOW above 10k really means nothing, as my stock is worthless, or should I say my retirement is worth nothing.
Regaurdless of what gets printed, keep preparing for the worst, stock up on food, save every dime you can, keep your vehicles in good repair and full of gasoline and above all: If it's not a needed to survive, don't buy it.
The only way things will get better for the middle class, is to stop spending. This will put a stangle hold on Wall Street and show them that their cash-cow has been sucked dry.