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Activision Blizzard's Q3: Am I right to be bearish?

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Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) published third-quarter results on Thursday after the bell. I can't say I was wholly taken with them. I know the best is probably yet to come once the Christmas shopping season really gets under way, but I was a little disappointed that the company saw a decline in adjusted profit.

Excluding items, Activision Blizzard made 4 cents per share this quarter versus the 7 cents per share made in last year's similar period. Well, did I say I was a little disappointed? Make that a lot disappointed. After all, this is supposed to be the publisher with the best pipeline on the block, the one with the Guitar Hero franchise and a great portfolio of licensed intellectual properties.

Do I sound angry? You have to understand, I own shares of the publisher, and I was hoping for better results. Yes, this is the third quarter, and I know the big action is about to take place in Q4 with the release of the next Call of Duty game. In fact, if you check out this Bloomberg piece, you'll see that expectations for the title are very, very high.

You can't fault me for wanting more as far as I'm concerned. And you can't fault me for thinking that maybe selling out of Activision Blizzard might be the best decision, considering that I do hold a profit in the shares. Not only has recent price action gone against the stock, but many pundits have questioned how resilient the Guitar Hero series of games will be from this point forward. The music genre has taken a hit, and DJ Hero doesn't appear to have the makings of a blockbuster phenomenon, as this article over at Gamasutra seems to indicate.

Another hit to the Activision Blizzard thesis is the video game industry itself. Sales have been less than awesome, and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) reported a disappointing quarter. Activision Blizzard remains my favorite in the sector. I prefer it over other stocks such as Sony (NYSE: SNE), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI).

Whether Activision Blizzard is strong on a relative basis or not might not matter if the stock's destiny is to go down from here. I'm not really a total bear on the company as I think the publisher could bounce back in the next quarter and report better results. Call of Duty is set to make a splash at retail when it is released next week.

However, I am likely more inclined to sell out of my Activision Blizzard than I am to add to the dips as I am definitely not the bull I once was. So, the way I see it, those who don't own the company yet should strongly consider all information, both fundamental to the business and specific to the macro environment of the industry itself, before buying.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 21, 2009: 12:30 AM

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