Unemployment claims: you can make it look good if you want

Posted Nov 6th 2009 8:15AM by Tom Johansmeyer
Filed under: Employees, Economic Data

Ten months ago again, newly laid-off unemployment claims fell to their lowest level in close to a year, suggesting that the job market may be showing signs of life. It feels like today's situation is the same.

Of course, declining claims isn't the same as new hiring, but at least it suggests that the bleeding is slowing down. The new unemployment rate is due to be published in a few minutes, and economists expect the rate to rise to 9.9%, a hair over September's 9.8%.

On Thursday, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell 20,000, to a seasonally-adjusted 512,000. Economists had predicted a less-favorable 523,000 for the month. The four-week average, which smoothes out the results, fell to 523,750 -- its ninth monthly decline in a row. The result is 135,000 lower than the recession's peak, reached back in April. Economists say that 400,000 is the level at which job creation can occur, and we aren't going to see that number for a while -- even at a declining rate.

A net total of 175,000 jobs were lost in September, increasing the number of lost jobs since the recession has begun December 2007 to more than the previous 7.2 million. The number of people who have claimed unemployment benefits for more than a week dropped by 68,000 to 5.75 million. This has been the eighth decline in nine weeks, but nonetheless beat economist estimates. More than 4 million people claimed extended benefits for the week ending October 17, 2009.

The unemployment news is ... well ... not good but not bad. Keep in mind that unemployment is expected to exceed 10.3% before the trend turns positive again. Now get ready for the monthly report.

Tags: job market, JobMarket, unemployment, unemployment claims, unemployment rate, UnemploymentClaims, UnemploymentRate

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

11-06-2009 @ 11:02AM

iocoissiiiy said...

i don't know if it's true or not, but i just heard that another UC/Federal Benefit for Unemployment compensation, but did Obama sign a bill, passing Benefits for another 39 weeks? I was informed of this, by my cousin who lives in Georgia, and I haven't read anything about it or heard anything about it, though i don't watch the news much or anything. I'm on a Tier 2, which ends in January, but if there's an extra 39 weeks? least i'd feel More comfortable looking for a job, knowing i'll still be gettin paid, even though i've been doing it the whole time anyway!! if anyone knows anything about this or can help me out, please let me know! thanks

jeff