I've read different figures for the budget on this Disney spectacle. Some sources say Carol cost $180 million, while others believe $185 million is the correct number. Box Office Mojo thinks $200 million was the true investment. Of course, none of these estimates necessarily take into account the marketing capital required.

Many will take me to task for being grim on this opening weekend performance. They will point out that it was the number one film in the market. They will also say that director Robert Zemeckis' The Polar Express had a modest start back in 2004. It opened with under $25 million domestically and went on to gross over $300 million around the world. With the star power of Jim Carrey supporting this project, some will argue that Carol will gather energy over the coming weeks as Christmas approaches, and may ultimately prove a wise expenditure on the part of the corporate powers over at the Mouse. Carol could become a holiday tradition, sure to pay dividends over time.

My counterargument would center on the risk aspect. Even if the movie has several good weekends yet to come, a $200 million outlay is still not the smartest speculative move to make. Would you greenlight such an enormous sum simply on the concept that you would accept a small opening and would be willing to wait for the film to find its audience over a number of years?

No. When you're beholden to Wall Street, you want a return on your investment as quickly as possible. This is why Carol's opening should be met with skepticism by shareholders. If Disney invested $200 million, then the studio needs to gross around $400 million to break even, or so conventional wisdom on celluloid economics goes. Considering how badly Disney's movie operations have been doing of late, the stock market couldn't conceivably be satisfied with a $30 million opening.

The corporate spin doctors will no doubt dismiss those who don't understand the need for patience in this case. Bah! Humbug! Call me a Scrooge of a shareholder who demands movie execs to be cheap with production dollars and disappointed by anything less than a blockbuster opening for such a high-profile vehicle. If this attitude were to prevail, then better economic returns would become more ubiquitous. I think CEO Bob Iger and his movie minions should be at Disney headquarters on Christmas Eve, putting in a little overtime on behalf of investors like myself who are becoming tired of lackluster grosses for expensive productions.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.