Fuqi drops on weak Q3 revenue, in-line Q4 forecast


(FUQI - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the Chinese jewelry company reported a third-quarter profit this morning that easily topped analysts' estimates. However, FUQI forecast fourth-quarter EPS of 55 to 60 cents and revenue of $182 to $191 million, compared to analysts' forecasts of 58 cents and $184 million, respectively. Revenues for Q3 about 2% below estimates, which is not a great sign. At this point in the economic cycle, traders are looking for optimistic indicators rather than weak or in-line ones. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on FUQI.

This morning, FUQI opened at $24.90. So far today the stock has hit a high of $25.74 and a low of $21.62. As of 12:00, FUQI is trading at $21.23, down $2.10 (-9.0%). The chart for FUQI looks bearish.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $30 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in ten weeks as long as FUQI is below $30 at January expiration. FUQI would have to rise by more than 41% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

FUQI hasn't been above $30 since early October and has shown resistance around $17.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FUQI.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 06:39 AM

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