Retail hiring for the holiday shopping season was expected to be slow, and now we have the data to confirm it. According to data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (supplied to BloggingStocks by Challenger, Gray & Christmas), the retail sector added only 63,500 jobs in October -- in data that appropriately was not seasonally adjusted.
This is only slightly better than the 59,100 retail jobs added in October 2008. In the fourth quarter of last year, retail employment increased by a mere 384,300 jobs, with the retail industry turning in its worst holiday shopping season employment stats since 1989 (when it added 380,500 workers).
Nonetheless, there is the possibility that the sector could gain momentum this month. John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, says, "There have been some signs that retail is picking up, so we could see a surge in November employment gains." Challenger advises those hunting for seasonal work "not to give up the search." He explains, "Retailers are taking a wait-and-see approach and could decide to bring in extra workers at the last minute."
Obviously, this is symptomatic of the weakness in the broader job market. The unemployment rate hit 10.2% in the United States last week, with another 190,000 jobs shed. If you're looking for a silver lining, however, Challenger offers temporary employment stats. Temp agency jobs grew by 33,700, the third consecutive monthly gain and best month since October 2007. This is where you'll see the jobless recovery in action.
"This is significant because temporary employment is typically where we see the first job gains in a recovery," Challenger notes. "Cautious employers are reluctant to add too many permanent workers this early in the recovery, so they turn to temporary workers. As the economy improves, these temporary workers are converted to full-time, permanent workers."
The good news, says Challenger: "We are definitely headed in the right direction."
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