Occidental: Well-positioned for oil's next vault to the stratosphere

Meanwhile, OXY's oil/gas production costs are above the sector average, but still acceptable. A strong pipeline of future oil/gas projects adds to the positive story. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for OXY are $3.67 to $5.74.

The risks? Obviously, if institutional investors (IIs) suddenly reverse their stance toward crude and oil drops to $40, that would weigh on OXY's results: don't expect that to happen any time soon.

Further, apply a 20 multiple to the First Call FY2010 EPS estimate of $5.74 and OXY will trade at $115 in 2010.

Technically, Occidental's stock chart is strong: an uptrend, but one that features above-average volatility. Also, OXY will encounter 52-week high resistance at $85, and then psychological resistance at $100, but with oil itself trending toward $100, the former two will prove to be minor.

Finally, the sell/stop loss has been raised to $55, or to just above cost, from $32. Hence, this is a zero-risk trade for your April-bought shares.

Stock Analysis: Occidental Petroleum is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in OXY now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your OXY position before December 2009. Revised sell/stop loss if you bought shares in this company: $55.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.