There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
I always like to start with my current picks because one year is an arbitrary amount of time, with the exception of tax consequences. I will probably keep all of these stocks in my portfolio for the time being, but committing new money is a different question.
Contenders
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) has been a great stock to own this year and at one point had gained over 100%. The stock is still trading 50% below its 2007 high, selling every day youth clothing successfully in a poor retail market. AEO will continue to be a winner among retailers, while paying a safe 2.5% yield, protected by a strong balance sheet that indicates no debt.
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has also advanced more than I could have hoped for, increasing about 80% to date. I think it has more room to run and is often mentioned in M&A discussions. It pays a small dividend but the real dividend may be the nature of the business and the quality of the management. They are heavily committed in North America where 70% of their oil and natural gas resources are located. Recent discoveries in West Africa look so promising that Exxon Mobil (XOM) is competing with the Chinese to gain control of a portion of the asset.
Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) is just one more great 2009 pick, passing 110% gain and still on Wall Streets wish list. I thought it was a steal last year and was proven right. Now what? It seems to me that my original thesis still has merit. The heart of the argument is that very few private mining companies control a vast amount of the worlds natural resources. Demand can only rise with economic expansion (demand) in the developing world continuing, combined with inflationary pressure which is sure to take hold based on running up monetary supply . Owning silver, gold, platinum, forests, diamonds, nickle, copper, coal and more on six continents is an enviable position to be in.
Diageo plc (DEO) is a stock you can hold forever, yes, I said forever. They are the largest manufacturer, and distributor of alcoholic beverages in the world, expanding major footholds in China and India. DEO pays a great 4.7% yield and I am quite sure booze is not going out of style in my lifetime.
Thus far the first four 2009 picks remain in contention for 2010. This does not hold true for all of them. In Part 2 of this series, I will continue by reviewing: EZCorp Inc. (EZPW), General Electric Company (GE), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Annaly Capital Management ( NLY), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) plus Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Merck (MRK).
Right now I am letting the winners continue to run, but there will only be ten picks in the end, so all of these might not make the final cut. I will be considering up to 50 stocks. If you have an interest in a particular stock let me know. You may find it in one of the upcoming reviews.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of all nine stocks as indicated.











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