How in the heck can you get 16% industrial growth and lower-than-expected consumer price inflation? How is that possible? Yet that's what we saw from China last night, and that's a tonic to pretty much everyone who is waiting for our own stimulus to kick in.
And we need it.
On Monday, Fluor (FLR) (Cramer's Take), the giant construction company, when asked if it could quantify the value of stimulus dollars currently in backlog, said "Really, the only stimulus funding we have seen directly has been the award that we got at Savannah River for some nuclear soil remediation. And, it was, I would say, we're less than $0.5 billion."
Why contrast China with America? Because if it weren't for China as world leader, we would be looking at unfathomably bad numbers for pretty much everything machinery. Why do you need to go buy more Caterpillars (CAT) (Cramer's Take) if you are the largest publicly traded infrastructure play and you only have $0.5 billion in business instead of what I thought would have been, say, maybe 10 times that? Why would we think that any heavy machinery from Terex (TEX) (Cramer's Take) or Joy Global (JOYG) (Cramer's Take) would need to be bought? Why would we think that Nucor (NUE) (Cramer's Take) would get new orders or that U.S. Steel (X) (Cramer's Take) might have its fortunes buttressed?
But when you see 16% industrial growth, you know that China must be using an awful lot of power, so it will need all of the equipment it needs to get coal out of the ground -- CAT, JOYG and Bucyrus (BUCY) (Cramer's Take) -- and that it will have big oil demand, which is great for everyone from Schlumberger (SLB) (Cramer's Take) to Transocean (RIG) (Cramer's Take), and tremendous need for copper (Freeport (FCX) (Cramer's Take) and BHP Billiton (BHP) (Cramer's Take)), iron (Vale (VALE) (Cramer's Take)) and coal (Peabody (BTU) (Cramer's Take) and Burlington Northern (BNI) (Cramer's Take), just to name two).
Even more important, there is no need to try to slow the production down with that kind of price inflation, despite the endless jeremiads we hear from the bears that the Chinese government is worried and about to pull the plug on lending. They did that once -- it almost caused a revolt!
Nobody wants to say it aloud these days for fear of the wrath, but we all know that Congress' focus on health care was so wrong as to be painful. Thank heavens for China's focus on growth and employment. They are certainly not free- or fair-traders. They are hurting many countries, including ours, when they dump subsidized products. But they have demand, real double-digit demand, and without them this recession would be nowhere near over.
Random musings: The housing collapse that continues to be talked about doesn't jibe with the continual decline in inventory or the comments from Toll Brothers (TOL) (Cramer's Take). We know that if there is so-called shadow inventory, it could be sold now because there are multiple buyers for homes that are $100,000 around the country and the realtor associations have been begging California banks to release foreclosures to sate the buyers. Either they don't have any or they can hold out without a problem. Both are very, very bullish for Bank of America (BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (WFC) (Cramer's Take), though to be the biggest shadow inventory banks.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Vale, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.











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