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Kohl's has the right business model at the right time

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Kohl's (KSS) business model is about as sweet as World Champion New York Yankee Shortstop Derek Jeter's opposite-field swing - good for a single, to drive in a run and tie the game in the eighth inning.

Hence, it goes without saying that I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on April 28, 2009 at a price of $43.82. If you bought KSS in April, you're up about 28%.


Further, underscoring: this is undoubtedly your last chance to snap up Kohl's shares and still earn an outsized gain in the current economic expansion.

Simply, Kohl's has the right business model at the right time. Kohl's is a moderate-price retailer that's held its own amid the recession, and will now benefit from a wider customer spectrum in the years ahead. The new era's frugal consumers are shunning the overpriced, higher-end retailers, especially for apparel, housewares, and certain accessories, and are flocking to Kohl's. KSS's positives, in a summary: fast-growing status, market share gains, high operating margin, and decent new store openings, combined with the aforementioned increased traffic.

Want another indicator of Kohl's operational strength and attractiveness as an investment? Kohl's opened 56 new stores in the past year, including 31 in California – a state that, arguably, has been hit the hardest by the U.S.'s pronounced recession. Bottom line: amid the retail sector's carnage, Kohl's has emerged as a force in the sector. The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for KSS are $3.02 to $3.44.

Technically, Kohl's stock took a breather, as expected, after breaking through psychological resistance at $50; otherwise the stock chart is strong. A recent pull-back from a probe of $60 represents a Buy opportunity.

Stock Analysis: Kohl's Corp. is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 50% position in KSS now. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your KSS position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $28.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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Last updated: November 20, 2009: 06:36 PM

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