Toll Brothers (TOL - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced preliminary Q4 results last night. TOL said that its fourth-quarter homebuilding revenue dropped 30 percent but its fourth quarter net signed contracts rose 42 percent, well above analysts' forecasts. TOL is expected to report full Q4 earnings on December 3 before the market opens. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TOL.TOL opened this morning at $20.14. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.00 and a high of $21.47. As of 11:40, TOL is trading at $21.13 up $2.74 (14.9%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in four and a half months as long as TOL is above $15 at March expiration. Toll would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
TOL has not been below $15 since March and has shown support around $17 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TOL.
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