Confidence in global economy dips on monetary easing exit strategies

Posted Nov 12th 2009 2:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International Markets, Recession, Financial Crisis

Confidence in the global economy dipped in November, amid concern that central bank withdrawal of some liquidity would weaken the economic recovery, a new survey of Bloomberg Terminal users indicated, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 60.3 in November from 61.7 in October. However, the index remained above 50 for the fourth straight month, which means there are more optimists than pessimists among those surveyed.

The survey of more than 1,500 Bloomberg users was conducted Nov. 2-6.

It's the first survey since the United States released Q3 GDP data indicating that the world's largest economy grew 3.5%. Most economists expect the recovery to be confirmed with GDP growth in Q4. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the widely-accepted determiner of the economic cycle. One historical measure of the recession that the NBER has used: two consecutive, positive GDP quarters.

Economic Analysis: The view from here argues that the November dip in confidence can be ignored. The important data point is that the reading remained over 50 – indicating more optimism than pessimism. However, should the index continue to fall, that would be a concern. I like this relatively new Bloomberg survey because it contains many institutional investors – the big guns who drive the markets.

Tags: global economy, institutional investors