All morning long I have listened to extended discussions about why the futures are down: Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) (Cramer's Take) guide-up wasn't much of a guide-up, Wal-Mart's (WMT) (Cramer's Take) beat wasn't real because of the revenue, oil could be down because of the Deutsche Bank forecast.
I think it is nonsense.
There's no reason for the futures to be doing anything. We are, once again, presuming knowledge.
What's really going on? H-P paid a huge amount of money for 3Com (COMS) (Cramer's Take), which is bullish. The Dollar General story is going to be priced very high because demand is great. (I am on record hoping Goldman gives you $20 or less, but KKR will never let that happen.) And, like Macy's (M) (Cramer's Take), Wal-Mart's keeping things nice and conservative for the holidays.
There really isn't much more to it.
We have seen an important pattern ever since we got down to about 60 trading days in the year. There are now just 33. Every kind of 0.5% or 1% decrease has brought in buyers until we get so overbought (plus-5 or more) that we get 2% to 3% declines.
Last night we hit plus-6 on the oscillator, so I am wary that we go into the 3% to 5% mode. But I am also conscious that there is so little time left in the year that you might not even get that.
My conclusion: Buyers will come in after a bit and the futures' decline will once again prove a false tell for the day's session.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-12-2009 @ 10:52AM
cpolyv said...
And YOU Cramer are one of the BIGGEST false self proclaimed gurus EVER! You have a following yes, and 98% of them lose money every time you open your mouth. This is all about YOU and your "charitable trust".. NIce scam you have going on. How much of your stock advice is actually being bought by family ahead of the curve.
Maybe its time for YOU to get investigated.