There's always good news, if you're willing to look hard for it. So, even though consumer sentiment dropped as unemployment rose, you can find the seeds of economic recovery in some of the U.S. import and export data reported recently.
Consumer sentiment fell early this month, largely because of the grim outlook for the job market. Consumers don't see a recovery coming anytime soon, with economists saying that unemployment has yet to peak despite having hit 10.2% already. Hopes edged higher in September when imports were seen to be on the rise, but sentiment starts and ends with jobs.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers preliminary sentiment index for November dropped to 66 – its lowest result since August and better than the 71 median of economists' expectations. In October the index was 70.6. In a statement, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said, "Importantly, the decline in confidence was already in place before the announced increase in the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent on November 6," adding that "the likelihood that the sentiment index would drift even lower in the months ahead cannot be easily dismissed."
Adding to the doubt about the near-term prospects for the U.S. economy, the U.S. trade deficit grew higher than expected. In September, it spread to 18.2%, its largest monthly gain in a decade, fueled largely by oil price increases for the seventh straight month and an increase in imports from China.
In August, the deficit was $30.8 billion and increased to $36.5 billion -- far exceeding the modest jump to $31.65 billion that analysts expected.
There is some economic trade data to celebrate, however. Both imports and exports had their top month since last December, with imports up 5.8% in September, its highest monthly increase since March 1993. Exports gained 2.9%, which was below the levels expected by some analysts.
Craig Peckham, an equity trading strategist at Jefferies and Company, told Reuters that "the overall upturn in U.S. demand is trumping the fall of the dollar."
The U.S. trade deficit with China, which the Street watches closely, grew 9.2% to $22.1 billion, with imports growing 8.3% to $27.9 billion. Both stats hit their highest levels since November 2008.
Through 2009, the trade gap with China constricted 15.9% for the first nine months of the year, which is small compared to those with other trading partners. The U.S. trade deficit with Canada was off 79.6%, with the EU's down 42% and OPEC's off 71.8%. Overall, the U.S. trade deficit has fallen substantially this year.











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