Teco Energy: A Florida power play

And, as expected, institutional investors have been incrementally adding to their TE shares over the past three months, on an expected improvement in Florida's economy. Moreover, an investment in Teco Energy is a bullish stance toward the Tampa metro region, TE's primary electric market. Teco remains committed to its Tampa Electric investment strategy, and the view from here argues the worst quarters are over for the Tampa area. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for TE are $1.06 to $1.26.

Technically, Teco's stock chart is strong – a gradual, but nevertheless continual uptrend – one in which the stock rarely touches the key, 50-day moving average. Further, year-end profit-taking from short-term institutional investors that rode TE up from $9 this year should be minor.

Stock Analysis: Teco Energy is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 50% position in TE now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your TE position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $6.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.