American Express is in an uptrend

Also, consumer spending, while it won't confuse any economist with the 'Roaring 20s,' could eek-out an incremental gain in 2010: that doesn't sound like much, but given the falling-off-the-table spending concerns of six months ago, it's music to the ears of IIs. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for AXP are $1.48 to $2.28.

Technically, American Express' stock chart looks great: a staircase, with only minor, constructive corrections, and a price that rarely touches the key, 50-day moving average -- a sign that IIs are adding to their AXP positions. AXP will encounter psychological resistance at $50, but this will prove to be a pit stop.

Finally, the Sell/Stop Loss has been raised to $27, or to just below cost, from $17. Hence, this is an essentially zero-risk trade for your May-bought shares.

Stock Analysis: American Express Co. is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in AXP now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your AXP position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $27.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.