All the American people want for Christmas is 15 million new jobs


U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Maryland, says he expects the House to vote on legislation that would create more jobs by the year-end holiday recess.

"Clearly 10.2% unemployment is unacceptable and is causing great pain to literally millions of people around the country," U.S. Rep. Hoyer said, CNN.com reported Tuesday.

To be sure, early into the globalization era there are many problems facing the United States, but a strong argument can be made that job creation ranks at the top, above universal health care, the Iraq/Afghanistan Wars, climate change/energy policy legislation, U.S. relations with key allies, Middle East issues, and the budget deficit.

That's because more than 7.6 million Americans have lost their jobs in the nearly 2-year recession -- which many believe ended in Q3. Still, despite the now probably-expanding economy, excess industrial capacity will likely weigh on job growth in the initial stage of the expansion, making it harder to reduce the nation's high, 10.2% unemployment rate (broader measures of unemployment, including one that includes part-time workers seeking full-time work and discouraged workers, are already above 15%).

That means more demand has to be created, and one way to do that is a jobs bill, as Majority Leader Hoyer noted -- one that increases and speeds allocations for infrastructure projects and that expands tax credits that encourage companies to hire more employees.

Economic/Political Analysis: Ideally, the package should be at least $200 billion in order to create as much demand as possible. The major problem with the 2009 stimulus package was that it was too small, given the depth of the recession. However, the stimulus is starting to take effect, from a GDP growth standpoint, in addition to saving jobs at the state level via direct aid to the states. If a $200-250 billion jobs bill is passed, that injection, combined with the stimulus package, should create enough demand to make the U.S. economic expansion self-sustaining. And the above is not an inconsequential issue for Congressional Democrats: as the party in power in Congress, they need to start creating jobs and reducing unemployment by June 2010, or they will face large losses in the 2010 Congressional election.

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Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.

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