During the great narrow bull market that was 2006-2007, anyone who hitched a ride on any bulk or oil carrier, any DryShips (DRYS) (Cramer's Take) or Diana (DSX) (Cramer's Take), or any Frontline (FRO) (Cramer's Take) or Nordic American Tanker (NAT) (Cramer's Take), or anyone who bought anything ag-related -- Deere (DE) (Cramer's Take), Monsanto (MON) (Cramer's Take), Potash (POT) (Cramer's Take) -- looked like a genius.
Beginning midyear last year, you looked like a moron.
You are now about to look like a genius again. The rates for shipping have turned harder than a Nascar driver avoiding an accident on the turn. When I saw them this weekend I thought it was a mistake. The bulk carrier increases are finally catching up with the Baltic Freight Index, and even the most seasoned of shippers are astonished about the turn. The oil carriers aren't experiencing the same "V" bottom, more of a "U," but Nordic American, which is all double-hulled, thinks rates can only go up right now, as China last week said it would be banning single-hulled ships.
Ag's a little more difficult because there's still plenty that can go wrong. The fertilizer stocks don't have the ethanol story behind them, and the spur -- a 30% increase in corn prices -- may not be enough to turn the complex around. The companies, particularly Potash, have been famously promotional throughout the downturn and quick to call any spike up the beginning of a new bull market. Chinese orders haven't helped. But I think that this space, at last, is at a bottom worth playing, and the breakout has been furious.
Deere's the most controversial of all, as it was a darling that has repeatedly failed to execute its own pullback, making Caterpillar (CAT) (Cramer's Take) management look like geniuses. But that's helped create a low bar for Deere even at the 52-week high we got yesterday, and that should help immensely when it reports next week.
Two brand-spanking-new bull markets for those who have missed the rest, ag and shipping. Thanks to Dan Fitzpatrick and Stephanie Link from RealMoney and Action Alerts PLUS for explaining how well they can work.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.



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