When Wall Street starts looking at tech companies as they would industrials -- as they should be scrutinized -- then we will not get downgrades like Bank of America/Merrill's takedowns of Intel (INTC) (Cramer's Take) and Texas Instruments (TXN) (Cramer's Take).
The essence of these two downgrades is the looming inventory correction that everyone has feared from $14 a share onward for Intel and $18 for Texas Instruments at the start of the summer. At every step I have heard of this coming breakdown, the double ordering and the decline in demand as one analyst after another has warned us of the apocalypse around the corner.
Now, no one outside Intel really knows what the next quarter will look like -- although from the looks of the government's insider trading case, that wasn't always the case. But, you need to see much more of a breakdown in the food chain somewhere to believe that Intel's about to get hammered. I can see some possibilities for backup at Texas Instruments as I am always worried about cellphone inputs because there are constant adjustments in product lines and we are in the midst of a big tech change.
But we need to hear someone other than that one pip out of Acer that things have gotten worse because other than that all chatter about demand is very, very good.
Could Bank of America/Merrill know what Dell (DELL) (Cramer's Take) will say after the close? Is Dell about to say things have gotten worse? I believe that this downgrade will have some impact today simply because some will posit that the analyst knows something about what Dell will say. (Any big impact might be muted by option pressure on Intel to close at $20).
But I think that if we start looking at Intel and Texas Instruments as big cyclical plays levered more to worldwide growth than to the current tone of the PC or cellphone businesses we will better understand, 1) why they have been strong and, 2) why they will remain strong. I would no more sell Intel on this downgrade than I would sell a Honeywell (HON) (Cramer's Take) or a United Tech (UTX) (Cramer's Take) or a Cooper (CBE) (Cramer's Take). The world's economies are getting too strong to obey these downgrades and consider these two companies as if they have had huge runs that are now over.
I think that both TXN and Intel are doing fine. I would buy Intel on any weakness and I would hold Texas Instruments, although I think the latter doesn't have the upside of PC chip giant.
Random musings: Good to see that Limited (LTD) (Cramer's Take), NetApp (NTAP) (Cramer's Take) and Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) (Cramer's Take) seem to have no impact given that the only thing that matters is oil/dollar. Another day where you can get great opportunities because of the quant guys gone mad. Don't forget, the lack of stock shopping days for the year trumps minute worries about oil/dollar levels and even employment claims!
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Honeywell and Cooper.



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