Tyson Foods: Meandering into the new year

Second, Tyson has an impressive global footprint, selling food in Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Mexico, Russia, and South Korea.

Third, TSN has the economies of scale to recover costs quicker, and it can also profitably price products at lower levels to grab market share.

The qualifiers: obviously feed costs –- particularly corn -– can turn a good year into a disappointing one, and it's an open question concerning whether feed prices will remain at reasonable levels in 2010. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for TSN are 25 cents to $1.00.

Technically, Tyson's stock chart, as noted, has basically treaded-water over six months, including several dips below the key, 50-day moving average – which indicates institutional investor indecision/caution. Generally, many flirtations with the 50-day MA would warrant closing the position, but for now, Tyson gets a reprieve, due to the aforementioned operational positives: Tyson has approximately three months to show technical indicator improvement.

Stock Analysis: Tyson Foods is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in TSN now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your TSN position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $8.30.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.