Black Friday expected to be strong, no promises for Christmas

But it's quieter now. Chris Donnelly, a partner in the retail practice at consulting firm Accenture (ACN), told Reuters, "There is much less panic, I would say, or much less uncertainty, as we go into the season." For the past few months, he's seen retail sales, "while not stellar, somewhat stabilizing" and believes the December run will be stable, as well.

Last year, 172 million people hit stores and websites from Thanksgiving through the Sunday that followed it, up substantially from 147 million in 2007, the National Retail Federation (NRF) reports. And, the amount of money these shoppers spent was up 7.2% to $372.57 per person. What happened later, though, was problematic. Holiday shopping fell 3.4% overall, the first drop since the NRF started keeping score.

The NRF hasn't issued a prediction for Black Friday, but it expects the holiday season total to fall 1%. The International Council of Shopping Centers is forecasting an increase of 1% to 2%. From the field, the expectation is flat. Of the retailers' chief marketing officers surveyed by BDO Seidman, 61% see relatively no change for Black Friday, with 33% anticipating an increase. Market research firm IBISWorld is calling a 2.8% Black Friday weekend increase, to $42.9 billion in sales, with 76.9 million people hitting the shops on Black Friday alone.

Of course, the retailers will be ready to receive them. Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) are opening at 5 AM, and Walmart (WMT) is keeping most of its doors open 24 hours. Just about everybody is planning to increase promotions and discounts this year -- 96% according to the BDO survey.

The existing retailers may be helped by a thinner herd. Bain & Co reports that 27 retailers went bankrupt in 2008, with 18 more succumbing this year. Together, these companies were responsible for sales of $25 billion to $30 billion.