Now that we see that health care reform is not going to bring price caps or socialization of medicine, we are beginning to see some real expansion in the drug stocks, including Merck (MRK) (Cramer's Take), Bristol-Myers (BMY) (Cramer's Take) and Lilly (LLY) (Cramer's Take). But there is one drug stock that is continually met with skepticism -- Sanofi Aventis (SNY) (Cramer's Take), the French vaccine and pharmaceutical maker run by Christian Viehbacher. The resistance is obvious, as his biggest two drugs are coming off patent very soon, and his hope is that by 2013 the company might again reach 2008 levels.
Sounds like there's no reason to buy this one. Sounds like its 4% dividend isn't safe.
But after interviewing Viehbacher on Friday I reach a totally different conclusion. I think that the breast cancer franchise here, with reports due out on its principal new tumor-arresting drug, could be so dramatically undervalued that you could get something to replace Plavix, its major breadwinner well within that time period.
We know Sanofi-Aventis as the vaccine company that combats swine flu. While we know the flu rages overseas, it has peaked in this country, even giving the short term for SNY -- next year -- a worrisome aspect to it while Plavix gets challenged. (All of the worries are laid out well in a recent Bear Stearns report.)
The short-term concerns made me worry about the dividend, but I sure didn't feel that way after Viehbacher said that after seeing what happened with Pfizer (PFE) (Cramer's Take) after its dividend cut, he had no desire to go down that path.
More important, as Citigroup pointed out in a Nov. 9 report, the catalysts here are many:
1. Lantus, an important diabetes drug could be a blockbuster.
2. The purchase of the animal health portion of its joint venture with Merck could give a huge boost to an important, growing segment. SNY has Frontline, which is an expensive product that dog owners seem to be willing to pay any price for.
3. The breast cancer drug BSI-201 launches in 2012, but because of potentially spectacular drugs it might be entering the marker faster -- we will know more from a Dec. 5 unveiling of some results.
4. Its emerging-market drug franchise -- including a new malaria pill announced Friday -- is on fire and growing at a much faster clip than any other drug business among the majors.
5. SNY also has some investments in biotechs like Regeneron that could one day produce results in arthritis, pain and cancer drugs.
In short, what looks on the surface like the most patent-challenged drug company after Pfizer may be the best out there for growth in the outyears, and I think that makes the stock both inexpensive and very exciting.
Random musings: Deere (DE) (Cramer's Take) was moved to a "buy" at Morgan Stanley right ahead of the quarter. This is a stock I like very much along with Potash (POT) (Cramer's Take) and Monsanto (MON) (Cramer's Take), as the ag bear market seems to have run its course.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bristol-Myers Squibb.



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