New 'Twilight' movie dominates weekend box office

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There was never any question that Summit Entertainment's Twilight Saga: New Moon would be the number one movie this weekend, there was just a question about how much the movie would gross. We now have the answer: a real, real lot.

According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, New Moon made $140 million at domestic theaters. To put this in perspective, this means that the vampire flick now occupies the third spot on the chart of best opening weekends (behind Dark Knight and Spiderman 3). Truly impressive, especially when you consider that we're not in the summertime.

Time Warner's (TWX) The Blind Side came in second with $34 million, while Sony's (SNE) disaster epic 2012 dropped to third after debuting in first place last week. This was completely unavoidable given New Moon's crushing influence, but the film has racked up well over $100 million in cumulative total so far.

The other big news of the weekend centers on Lions Gate Entertainment's (LGF) Precious property. It came in sixth after an increase in theater count, and its per-theater average was strong relative to the competition. Precious should turn out to be a nice hit for Lions Gate.

Disney's (DIS) A Christmas Carol continues to fight the good fight after a very disappointing start. It so far has made around $80 million after three weekends in the marketplace. No, that isn't good enough for the much-hyped holiday spectacle. The theory is that business will pick up as Christmas heads our way. Let's hope the theory becomes reality.

Summit is going to make a lot of money off the Twilight franchise (although I'd love to know how much of the cash flow is controlled by author Stephenie Meyer). And it makes one wonder what the future holds for the private movie company. Will it be bought out? If so, which Hollywood entity will buy it? Supposedly, studios are becoming conservative about movie investments, but you know such sentiment ultimately means nothing. Execs in Tinsel Town are always ready to throw premiums around without any regard for shareholder value. I could see a Time Warner being interested somewhere down the line. More interestingly, I wonder how a merger between Summit and Lions Gate would look to institutions. Also of interest is this New York Post article from earlier in the fall which talks about the company's desire to expand on its own.

As for the stocks highlighted in this article, I think both Disney and Time Warner are potential trade ideas. Both of them appear to be in uptrends, and they are certainly safer than Lions Gate; in addition, they recently hit fresh 52-week highs. Keep in mind, though, the risk involved. As this rally ages, there is always the chance for a sharp retreat in share prices.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 10, 2010: 12:07 AM

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