The used car trend in the United States isn't ending anytime soon, which is why I'm reiterating my buy rating for auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), first recommended on May 18, 2009 at a price of $37.02. One argument holds that frugal consumers in U.S. will delay getting maintenance done on their used vehicles, due to tight budgets. But that delay can only occur for so long: critical maintenance must be performed, eventually. Further, the U.S. auto fleet's increasing age provides another tailwind for ORLY's sales. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for ORLY are $2.24 to $2.59.
Technically, O'Reilly's stock has meandered since the May Buy call, but the uptrend from late 2008 remains intact. True, the chart contains several breaches of the key, 50-day moving average line, and in normal times that would be a concern. However, due to the auto repair market's fundamentals, they will be overlooked.
Stock Analysis: O'Reilly Automotive is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 50% position in ORLY now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your ORLY position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $18.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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