Black Friday busy, but momentum may not hold

Of course, the year-over-year bar hasn't been set all that high: 2008 was the worst the industry had seen in almost 40 years.

The action on the ground on Black Friday was salient. The retail analysts who jumped into the fray saw packed malls and plumper bags than last year. But, they are quick to note that there's a long way to go until December 25, and forecasts for the holiday season range from a year-over-year increase of 2% to a decline of 3%.

Terry Lundgren, CEO of Macy's (M), told Reuters, "There's lots of people in this store -- there are lots of shopping bags," referring to the company's flagship location in Manhattan's Herald Square. But, he continues, "I don't think necessarily that customers are going to spend more than they spent last year." Others are bracing themselves. Best Buy's (BBY) CEO, Brian Dunn, thinks the next few weeks will be difficult.

The National Retail Federation found in a survey that 134 million people were expected to come out in the U.S. this year, and discounters like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) were predicted to benefit from most of the traffic -- followed by department stores, including Macy's and Kohl's (KSS).

For top performers, analyst Randal Konik from Jefferies & Co likes Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). On a midnight visit to a Long Island outlet center, he found that traffic was up, and the discounts weren't as favorable: 20% to 40% rather than the 50% levels seen last year. Retailers are trying to steer clear of last year's deep price cuts to protect their top lines, and they have trimmed inventories as a result.

The dynamic this year, according to NPD Group's Marshal Cohen, senior analyst, is to know what you want before you hit the store. Measures retailers have taken to control crowds has cut the insanity, and Cohen notes, "Now it's a serious business opportunity and a serious savings opportunity for the consumer."