Democrats' jobs bill likely to hinge on job creation in the private sector

A delay in health care reform's passage obviously would keep Congress occupied on that major public policy task; meanwhile, an unexpected improvement in the U.S. employment situation would undercut political support for a jobs package. (A Bloomberg News survey estimates that the U.S. economy will post a loss of 100,000 jobs in November, following a loss of 190,000 in October.) The U.S. Labor Department will release the November jobs report on Friday, December 4 at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Economic Analysis: From a Keynesian macroeconomic standpoint, a strong argument can be made for a $150-200 billion jobs bill. Given the length and depth of the 2007-2009 recession, the GDP hole exists, and based on current projections for only a mild increase in demand, job creation in the private sector is likely to be sluggish. Moreover, there's plenty of work to be done and millions of skilled and semi-skilled citizens willing to do it. That said, if U.S. Labor Department data suddenly shows monthly payrolls rising by 150,000 per month, that would certainly remove the jobs bill from the high priority list.