What are the chances of a jobs bill emanating from the U.S. Congress in the immediate future? As of now, put it at 60/40 in favor.
Two factors that will help determine the jobs bill's fate: 1) health care reform legislation and 2) net monthly job losses/creation.
Assuming a December passage of health care reform legislation (signing it on the one-year anniversary of President Obama's inauguration has a nice ring to it), and continued, monthly job losses through March (which is likely), that will give Congress the legislative time and also underscore the necessity of an infrastructure-based jobs bill.
A delay in health care reform's passage obviously would keep Congress occupied on that major public policy task; meanwhile, an unexpected improvement in the U.S. employment situation would undercut political support for a jobs package. (A Bloomberg News survey estimates that the U.S. economy will post a loss of 100,000 jobs in November, following a loss of 190,000 in October.) The U.S. Labor Department will release the November jobs report on Friday, December 4 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Economic Analysis: From a Keynesian macroeconomic standpoint, a strong argument can be made for a $150-200 billion jobs bill. Given the length and depth of the 2007-2009 recession, the GDP hole exists, and based on current projections for only a mild increase in demand, job creation in the private sector is likely to be sluggish. Moreover, there's plenty of work to be done and millions of skilled and semi-skilled citizens willing to do it. That said, if U.S. Labor Department data suddenly shows monthly payrolls rising by 150,000 per month, that would certainly remove the jobs bill from the high priority list.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-30-2009 @ 2:51PM
Virgil Bierschwale said...
Instead of wasting time on another stimulus bill that won't get to the people that need it, why don't we all work together to identify exactly who is shipping our jobs offshore and where they are going by adapting the procedures defined in this article?
http://keepamericaatwork.com/?p=5245
My opinion is that we knew who and why, we would be able to develop a solution that would put Americans back to work in America rather then spending money that never even gets to those that need it.
Virgil
http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com
12-01-2009 @ 1:35AM
ij70 said...
Virgil, nice! The witch hunt, eh? What's next? Gypsies and jews?
If you want jobs to come back, raise tariffs on imports. It is that easy.