The European Central Bank Thursday kept its key, short-term interest rate the same at 1%, a move investors in Europe and around the world no-doubt welcomed, for several reasons.First, Europe's economy is nowhere near sustainable growth status: euro-zone GDP will likely to show a 3.7-4.0% contraction in 2009, and post only a modest increase in 2010 -- perhaps as low as 0.5-1.0% GDP growth. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet underscored as much. "We know we have a bumpy road ahead of us," Trichet said, Reuters reported Thursday.
Second, and almost as significant, had the ECB increased key, short-term rates, that action would have placed even more pressure on the dollar. The dollar has weakened about 9% versus the euro in 2009, largely on the U.S. government's back-to-back $1 trillion deficits, stemming from the bank bailout and fiscal stimulus package.
However, encouraged by the ECB's stand-pat stance on rates, the euro was virtually unchanged versus the dollar, strengthening just one-fifth of a cent to $1.5065 in Thursday trading at mid-day.
Monetary Analysis: Of course, the primary factors in the ECB's rate decision are the euro-zone's inflation and economic performance, but the central bank is also a key institution in global economic policy. Moreover, the last thing the ECB wants to do is take steps that would weaken the dollar further, a condition that has boosted commodity prices, especially oil. Raising interests prematurely would have had that effect, hence the ECB's stand-pat stance is welcome, as it will both support the euro-zone and global economic recoveries, and help stabilize the dollar.
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