It goes without saying that the United States and China have philosophical differences regarding how best to achieve balanced, sustainable global GDP growth.Further, it's not likely that China will end its fixed-rate currency policy for the yuan: China keeps the yuan pegged at roughly 6.83 yuan to the dollar. U.S. manufacturers charge that the peg artificially undervalues China's exports, giving its companies an unnatural competitive advantage. China counters that the fixed yuan is necessary for its embryonic, vulnerable economy, and that the world benefits from the very cheap goods that stem in part from it.
Given the above impasse, are there any positives for the global economy emanating from China that can provide consolation for investors? Indeed there are, and the most important of which may be the strengthening of growth in China's manufacturing sector. China's manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in more than five years in November, to 55.7 from 55.4 in October, according to a purchasing managers' index compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc., Bloomberg News reported. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
The significance for the U.S. and investors? A growing Chinese economy is essential to strengthen the global expansion. China is the most important economy in Asia, and during the current expansion Asia must account for a larger percentage of global commercial activity than it did before the global recession, and a strengthening manufacturing sector in China is a step toward that goal. Moreover, the performance of China takes on all the more importance when one considers that Asia's other major economy, Japan, is struggling to achieve even modest GDP growth and end deflation.
Economic Analysis: China's domestic consumption remains too low and its savings rate too high, but given the West's current limited ability to influence China's public policy decisions, you take the benefits where you can get them. Data indicating a healthy rebound in manufacturing is one such positive sign, as it points toward an eventual return to a 10% GDP growth rate for China. And while a disproportionate percentage of the benefits from that mega-growth will benefit the domestic Chinese economy, some of it will benefit the West in general, and the U.S. in particular. Eventually, more Chinese citizens will travel abroad, buy high-end U.S. manufactured goods (such as agriculture equipment and construction vehicles) and U.S.-made cars [from General Motors and Ford (F)]. And that's good news for U.S. companies and investors.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-03-2009 @ 10:33AM
clikdawg said...
"Ray of Light" -- that anything like a "green shoot" Joe?