Forget about running out of oil. A Deutsche Bank analyst wrote: "The world will never run out of oil."
You are probably wondering why the analyst was able to make this prediction. The foremost reason is that we are becoming more efficient. This should keep prices in check at about $65.00 per barrel, down from this year's $80.00 per barrel.
The next question is how do you know that the world is becoming more efficient. The Energy Information Administration uses a metric called: "energy intensity." Energy intensity measures the amount of oil used in relation to the size of the economy.
US energy intensity dropped 2% a year, every year since the early 1980's. Deutsche Bank expects it to drop to 3% as people buy more fuel efficient cars. This, coupled with only 2.5% growth, is keeping demand low.
Actually, the US demand may have already peaked. US oil consumption peaked at 21 million barrels per day in 2005. Since then it dropped to 19 million bpd. The last time we saw such a big drop was 1979 -- 1982. The US will not consume 21 million bpd until 2029.
As for the Chinese economy, Addison Armstrong of Tradition Energy says that Chinese growth will slow in coming years, reducing oil demand. Add to this electric cars in China and oil demand will slack off instead of rising.
Last year, spare oil supplies hit a low of 1 million bpd. Now that has jumped to 4 million bpd and will probably rise to 4.5 million bpd next year.
Do you expect gas prices to fall next year?



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-03-2009 @ 5:18PM
DP said...
Oil will never run out. It may cost $10K a barrel but it will always be available. The western world depends on CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL energy and without both of those the western way of life and it's people are doomed.
12-03-2009 @ 6:08PM
Peter Van Schaik said...
Of course the world will never run out of oil. At some point the price of oil will simply be so high that many other energy sources will be more economical. No one will ever seriously consider burning oil costing 10,000 in 2009 dollars: Even solar and wind energy can beat that price. http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com
12-03-2009 @ 7:32PM
gsaveit said...
This analysts doesn't understand the meaning of a finite resource, at least not in the real world sense.
Simple as that.
You can not somehow reach infinite supply from a finite quantity simply by introducing a variable called 'efficiency'. If you increase efficiency to infinity, maybe theoretically the limit goes to infinity but that's calculus fantasy, not the real world.
So good luck with that prediction.
12-04-2009 @ 4:24PM
Peter Van Schaik said...
Whether the supply of oil is finite or not has nothing whatsoever to do with it. As it becomes more expensive to extract oil from the earth, and it will continue to be more expensive with the passing of time, the price will rise and oil will simply price its way out of use. At some point oil will simply cost to much to use so we will quit using it. This will occur long before the finite supply runs out. http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com
12-08-2009 @ 3:35PM
Breck Henderson said...
Actually, we'll never run out of cheap oil either. Read Thomas Gold's book, "The Deep, Hot Biosphere." Oil is not a fossil fuel, and there is an unlimited supply percolating up from deep below the earth's mantle, where is has been since hydrocarbons and other materials first aggregated to form our planet. Okay, it's not proven science, although Gold makes a convincing case for it, but it's a good explaination for how we keep finding vast deposits of oil all around the world and how some deposits thought to be depleted have almost magically replenished. I suppose this is a scary thought to the AGW alarmists.
1-19-2010 @ 6:14PM
Kate said...
I've been doing a fairly extensive research project no U.S. Dependence on Oil for about 3 weeks now, and the first fact stated in this article that "Oil will never run out," seems to me to be completely false. Yes, we do have a plentiful supply of oil left that could last 100 years for all I know, but that's the point. It could end up only lasting 100 years, a couple million/billion shy of the time we have left before the sun burns out. This is where our problems begin to arrise, it being that oil is used to make alternative energy sources, such as wind turbines, solar panels, and our good friend electricity. Oil is used in making cars and running them, manufacturing computers, microships, concrete, plastics, food delivery, harvesting, etc. The world's dependence on oil will never cease to exsist and there are too many catastrophic economical consequences of changing the energies used to power the world for us to even consider such a thing. When the world is using 90 million gallons of oil PER DAY, I think that yes, oil will eventually run out, regardless.