The week in preview: Profit expectations for Costco, Kroger, Movado and others

The consensus forecast is for a third-quarter profit of $0.65 per share, up 18.5% from the same period a year ago. Sales for the three months that ended in October are expected to be 3.9% higher to $141.2 million. But the full-year forecast is for earnings of $0.55 per share (the same as a year ago) on $402.7 million (-12.6%) in sales. Movado's earnings results were better than expected in the previous two quarters.

Movado's earnings multiple is 12x, which less than that of competitor Fossil Inc. (FOSL), and it's kept enough cash on hand to cover long-term debt in recent quarters. The First Call consensus recommendation shifted from hold to buy MOV in the past three months. The mean price target is $16.50. A Wall Street Strategies analyst likes MOV, but the Motley Fool prefers FOSL. At $10.60, Movado shares are 15.3% lower than three months ago, falling well below the 100-day moving average, but still supported by the 200-day moving average.

Greif Inc. (GEF), which produces containers and packaging for bulk shippers, appointed a new board member and declared a quarterly dividend during its fiscal fourth quarter. For the three months that ended in October, Greif is expected to report that earnings rose 12.4% from a year ago to $1.45 per share. But revenue is expected to total $794.4 million, which is 18.8% lower than a year ago. The full-year forecast is for a profit of $3.24 per share (-22.5%) on $2.8 billion (-25.2%) in revenue. This Ohio-based company has topped earnings estimates in the past five quarters, by as much as 11 cents per share.

Greif's long-term EPS growth forecast is 6.2% and its earnings multiple is 13x. Analysts, on average, recommend buying GEF and have for more than 90 days. The mean price target is $65.75. Shares have risen 15.7% in the past three months and reached a new 52-week high of $58.88 recently.

The three months that ended in October saw Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) report strong first-quarter earnings results and declare a quarterly dividend. Analysts expect this Iowa-based convenience store operator to report fiscal second-quarter 2010 earnings of $0.60 per share, up from $0.54 per share in the same period of last year. But revenue for the period is expected to come to $1.2 billion, down 13.5% from a year ago. And the forecast is for year-over-year growth of both EPS and revenue in the third quarter. Casey's earnings have beat consensus estimates in the most quarters, by 27 cents per share in the first quarter.

The long-term EPS growth forecast for Casey's is 10.7% and its earnings multiple is 13x. The consensus recommendation remains to buy CASY, with a mean price target of $35.83. Zacks and TheStreet.com both like CASY. Shares have been trading between $30 and $33 in the past three months and closed Friday at $30.77.

Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) expanded its stock buyback program and boosted its quarterly dividend in its fiscal fourth quarter, and analysts are looking it to report earnings of $0.93 per share, compared with a $1.06 per share loss in the same period a year ago. Revenue for the period that ended in October is expected to be 2.0% lower to $451.1 million. The full-year forecast is for earnings of $3.98 per share (compared with a $0.54 per share loss a year ago) on $1.8 billion (+2.8%) in sales. Sanderson Farms earnings results have beat the Street view in the past three quarters, topping estimates by 71 cents per share in the second quarter. Seeking Alpha expects another earnings beat.

Sanderson Farms' earnings multiple is 10x, less than the food and beverage industry average. Yet, the consensus recommendation remains to buy SAFM, and the mean price target is $49.17. Shares have risen 12.0% in the past month to $42.24.

Kroger Co. (KR) is expected to post a small decline in earnings, but could please investors with an upside surprise and/or positive outlook. The Cincinnati-based grocer welcomed a new senior VP and raised its quarterly dividend in the third quarter. Earnings are expected to have fallen two cents per share from a year ago to $0.37 per share. But sales for the three months that ended in October are expected to be marginally higher to $17.7 billion. So far, the full-year forecast is for net income of $1.94 per share (+2.1%) on $76.2 billion in sales, up just slightly from a year ago. Kroger has topped earnings estimates in four of the past five quarters, by as much as four cents per share.

Kroger's long-term EPS growth forecast is 9.0% and its earnings multiple is 11x. Analysts on average recommend buying KR, with a mean price target of $26.72. But the Motley Fool prefers competitor Safeway (SWY) to Kroger. Kroger shares have been falling since mid October, recently dropping below the 50-day moving average, and closed Friday at $22.50.

In its first quarter of fiscal 2010, Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) reported strong fall sales and declared a quarterly dividend. Earnings for the three months that ended in November are expected to be five cents per share lower that a year ago to $0.60. But sales for the quarter are expected to be 5.0% higher to $17.2 billion. Analysts so far expect sequential and year-over-year growth for both EPS and revenue in the second quarter. Costco has fallen short of earnings estimates in two of the past five quarters, though, by as much as four cents per share.

Costco's long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.0%, which is better than rivals BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (BJ) and Walmart (WMT), parent company of Sam's Club. The consensus recommendation is to buy COST, with a mean price target of $63.11. The Motley Fool likes Costco, but InvestorPlace feels the stock is overvalued. At $59.19, shares are 6.7% higher than three months ago.

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