In the new era, old home price trend may not be the new home price trend

However, the above may not be the case following the nation's unusual, pronounced recession stemming from the financial crisis, for two reasons. First, with unemployment high, the U.S. workforce is substantially smaller, hence the pool of mid-level home buyers will not be as large as it has been during previous recoveries. Second, borrowing requirements are more-rigorous -- some citizens who would qualify for a mortgage in normal times, will not qualify for one in today's decidedly tighter-credit times.

Conversely, luxury buyers, many of whom are cash buyers, by practice sidestep the financing constraint. Hence, what the nation may see is the luxury market snapping-back before the mid-level home market.

Concerning regional home price data, in September, the latest month for which data is available, both the 10-city and 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices posted their fifth consecutive monthly increases. However, prices are still lower, on a 12-month basis. Year-over-year price changes for key, major U.S. metropolitan areas were as follows: New York, down 9.0%; Los Angeles, down 9.0%; Chicago, 10.6%; San Francisco, down 7.8%; Washington, down 5.0%; Boston, down 3.3%; Miami, down 16.2%. Dallas, down 1.2%; and Seattle, down 13.8%.

Housing Analysis: What factor will probably play a large role in the timing of a region's home price rebound? You guessed it: job growth. Those regions that display sustained, high job growth, or that are likely to serve as magnets for new business activity/new sectors of growth will probably be at the head-of-the-line, home price recovery-wise.