Disney's new 'Princess' film opens in first place. Is that good enough?


When I first saw the box-office results for this past weekend, I was of two minds about Disney's (DIS) The Princess and the Frog. As of early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Princess took in $25 million at domestic theaters, good for first place.

That's pretty cool, right? Maybe even more than pretty cool, one would think. It's not an insignificant sum of money. Plus, Princess finished ahead of strong competitors such as Time Warner's (TWX) The Blind Side and Summit Entertainment's The Twilight Saga: New Moon.

But is $25 million really that much these days for an animated Disney spectacle released during the magic of the holiday season? Plus, there was a lot of hype surrounding the project -- and a fair amount of hope riding on it as well. Disney is searching for unqualified blockbusters to fill the ailing coffers of its studio asset. Not only that, but the Mouse's management wants to turn around the company's classic cartoon franchise and grow beyond its reliance on Pixar-generated properties.

So, as all these thoughts swirled through my mind, I started to turn negative on the gross -- though I realize it could seem absurd to criticize a $25 million, number-one debut. So what are others saying about Princess?

Interestingly enough, the market of opinion isn't uniformly cheery on the $25 million. The New York Times says that the box office magic might not be so magical in actuality. Time likewise questions the monetary performance. And the Los Angeles Times doesn't offer shareholders any comfort.

Unfortunately, I'm opting to be a bear on Princess. Sure, it could conceivably do well over its run if word of mouth is positive, but as a long-time shareholder of Disney, I'm getting tired of having to wait for things, such as better dividend increases, a share price approaching the $50 level, an intelligent strategy for content distribution in the digital age, and so on.

I'm afraid Princess cannot be praised at the moment. Disney better put its marketing machine to work at producing a strong second weekend. Investors would certainly love to see the picture retain a large portion of its opening gross. I don't know if that will happen or not, but all interested parties should keep an eye on the daily results to see how the film fares leading up to the next outing.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

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