When I first saw the box-office results for this past weekend, I was of two minds about Disney's (DIS) The Princess and the Frog. As of early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Princess took in $25 million at domestic theaters, good for first place.
That's pretty cool, right? Maybe even more than pretty cool, one would think. It's not an insignificant sum of money. Plus, Princess finished ahead of strong competitors such as Time Warner's (TWX) The Blind Side and Summit Entertainment's The Twilight Saga: New Moon.
But is $25 million really that much these days for an animated Disney spectacle released during the magic of the holiday season? Plus, there was a lot of hype surrounding the project -- and a fair amount of hope riding on it as well. Disney is searching for unqualified blockbusters to fill the ailing coffers of its studio asset. Not only that, but the Mouse's management wants to turn around the company's classic cartoon franchise and grow beyond its reliance on Pixar-generated properties.
So, as all these thoughts swirled through my mind, I started to turn negative on the gross -- though I realize it could seem absurd to criticize a $25 million, number-one debut. So what are others saying about Princess?
Interestingly enough, the market of opinion isn't uniformly cheery on the $25 million. The New York Times says that the box office magic might not be so magical in actuality. Time likewise questions the monetary performance. And the Los Angeles Times doesn't offer shareholders any comfort.
Unfortunately, I'm opting to be a bear on Princess. Sure, it could conceivably do well over its run if word of mouth is positive, but as a long-time shareholder of Disney, I'm getting tired of having to wait for things, such as better dividend increases, a share price approaching the $50 level, an intelligent strategy for content distribution in the digital age, and so on.
I'm afraid Princess cannot be praised at the moment. Disney better put its marketing machine to work at producing a strong second weekend. Investors would certainly love to see the picture retain a large portion of its opening gross. I don't know if that will happen or not, but all interested parties should keep an eye on the daily results to see how the film fares leading up to the next outing.
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-14-2009 @ 10:25AM
asilmser said...
While your points are valid, I would like to offer some perspective.
1st: Most of the general public does not know about or understand the significance of the "hype and hope" associated with this film. They don't understand that it's the first hand-drawn film from Disney in awhile. They just see it as another animated movie.
2nd: In a weak economy, the vast majority of the public is being very picky about how they spend their entertainment dollars this holiday season. Over the next couple months, I suspect you will see good to modest weekends spread over a longer time rather than a big opening weekend.
3rd: The family movie crowd is pragmatic. They don't respond right away to marketing hype, they wait and see whether the movie will be worth piling the family into the SUV or minivan and spending close to $100 bucks on a movie they could potentially buy or rent on netflix later. Your point about next weekend may be valid here.
4th: Most of the movies out right now are critically a flop. A quick look on RottenTomatoes.com will show a large amount of green splats next to many of the top 10 films at the box office. I think there is a malaise out there about what hollywood is offering in general.
5th: Families are busy busy busy right now. There is a little-known holiday called Christmas coming up. Parents are busy getting ready, the kids are still in school, and there just isn't enough time to spend 2-3 hours on a movie event. I would look to the sales over the holiday weekends to be the tell-tale signs of success.
In short, it's too early to be worried. After having seen the film this weekend and watching the response of the children in the theater, I am cautiously optimistic.
Just a few thoughts from this average family guy.