Look for 2010 to Resolve Monsanto's Meandering

Further, although price cuts prompted by the recession have squeezed margins, Monsanto has done a better-than-adequate job containing production costs. Hence, the calculation here is that the worst is over, from demand and product price standpoints, for MON.

The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for MON are $3.29 to $4.43. That $4.43 FY2010 EPS estimate will likely prove to be low.

Technically, Monsanto's stock chart reflects the aforementioned $70-83 trading range, with two, significant violations of the key, 50-day moving average. MON also display a 'lower highs and lower lows' downward trend for 2009, hence a tight Sell/Stop Loss has been deployed.

Stock Analysis: Monsanto Co is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in MON now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your MON position before February 2010. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $62.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.