Apple Stock Higher Amid Rumors of a New Product


On the final trading session before Christmas, Apple, Inc. (AAPL) shares hit an all-time high thanks to a published report hinting that another product announcement may be rolling in. On December 23, the Financial Times reported on its Tech Blog that Apple "has something big up its sleeve for next month."

The main reason for this speculation is that the tech company has booked a stage at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts (YBCA) in San Francisco for "several days in late January." Apple has used this venue to make major announcements in the past, and the speculation is that Apple is going to make a major product announcement at the end of January. The blog quoted Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster as saying, "We believe there is a 75 per cent likelihood that Apple will have an event in January and a 50 per cent chance that it will be held to launch the Apple Tablet."

It was this speculation that pushed Apple to record highs, and it is this speculation that will continue to motivate investors. Any hint of a new product or new innovation from Apple usually sets a fire underneath the shares, a scenario that plays out over and over for the company. The strength of Apple can not be denied, along with the influence the stock exerts over the Street - which bodes well for the market in general today. That said, I am a bit worried that this enthusiasm could blow up in Apple's face. What if the 25% chance that the YBCA has been booked for no reason comes true? Moreover, what if the 50% chance that Apple doesn't announce a new tablet computer come true (both of those chances come directly from the Piper Jaffray quote)?

I have been bearish about Apple in the past, and boy have I been wrong. I always thought that analysts were too optimistic toward the firm, but these analysts have held fast to their Apple devotion. Will that be the case if the iTablet (or whatever hip name it will be given) does not come to fruition? My guess is that we will not see this situation tested, as it sure appears that Apple has given plenty of hints that it will be releasing some new product. While Apple is the trendsetter in tech, let's not forget that it is a well-run company with savvy business minds in the front office. I can't imagine that the hints and leaks suggesting a new product will be released in January are false -- so prepare for hipsters to flock to Apple stores to buy some new product. My only question is, will the impending product-related rally already be priced into the shares?

Apple is not a value buy at its current price, mainly because I find it hard to call a stock selling for more than $200 a value stock. That said, I have doubted Apple in the past, and it has proven me wrong. Will Apple rally thanks to this news? Yes. Will Apple continue to hold any momentum through January? Yes. Will the official new product announcement push the stock higher? Yes. Will iPod sales for the holidays come in higher than many of us expected? Probably. I just worry that jumping in on a stock trading higher than $200 presents way too much downside for my taste. Nevertheless, there are people that will pay the high premium for the stock -- and it will likely turn out to be a good decision. The shares have a fair share of potential support in place, so any fall shouldn't be too bad. That said, bad news can always cause a strong stock to stumble. Keep an ear out for any hint on Apple's impending announcement.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 07:48 AM

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