Cramer on BloggingStocks: Looking Forward to the End of Stimulus


TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says when it happens, you'll hear a lot of noise, but it will be a healthy sign.

Get ready for the following: "The market's about to take a header because the Fed and Treasury are going to take away the stimulus."

First, I don't even know if it is true. We have a Fed chairman who is incredibly independent and a great student of history who recognizes that if World War II had not started, we would have slipped right back into a depression.

Second, a market that is up totally on forever stimulus is a market that is just a big phony that no one trusts. We should welcome a withdrawal of some stimulus at some time, because it will mean that the economy is now functioning on its own.

Third, the inflation nuts should quiet down, although they will simply say "not enough tightening." They will most likely be short-sellers who need the market down. I can't blame them, and it is really within their purview to talk like that. I know I would. I wouldn't be short unless I believed in the negative thesis.

Fourth, if we had a "real" economy, without stimulus, it would mean that the foreclosures had bottomed out -- closely followed by Bernanke -- and the canard of a commercial real estate crash is at last acknowledged by all.

Fifth, earnings would explode, on the basis of sales, not cutbacks. I keep imagining a whole new level of profitability for our companies and a much higher rate of increased dividends, especially as we now see the fallacy of endless buybacks that don't work.

Finally, it would mean that all of these near-bankrupt banks and municipalities might see a return to higher tax receipts. Of course it will be problematic for the banks, which will have their carry trade dismantled. They will have to lend or wither. The good ones, which know how to lend, will win. The bad ones will be terrible investments, but that's the price you have to pay to wean off the government trough.

This view of mine will remain an intense minority. But it has history on its side. Consider the bountiful 1990s, all done in economic expansion. Real wealth was created and real businesses formed.

I think of all of this because of the importance -- explained by my colleague Matt Horween -- of the Purchasing Managers' Index, which seems totally ignored but tells an important tale.

Don't forget that growth is good, growth without inflation is unbelievably good, and no growth, or growth only with government stimulus that must end, is Japan, the worst of all.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 05:04 PM

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