With NBC in Shambles, Jefferies Upgrades CBS


This morning, Jefferies & Co. upgraded television network CBS Corp. (CBS), elevating the media company to buy from hold. Jefferies also upped CBS's price target to $16 from $12. According to the broker, CBS's recent strength in ad pricing indicates that more advertisers are likely to pay upfront for advertising time. This likelihood means that the company should not face uncertainty and need to resort to higher prices due to the scatter market.

The brokerage cited the fact that the third quarter of 2009 saw companies purchasing ads mere days away from the commercial's air time. This time window is now closer to four weeks. Jefferies stated, "We further note that CBS has one of the only good stories to tell advertisers with ratings up at the network."

First thing's first. It's more than likely that the situation at NBC helped Jefferies make its decision. With the late-night situation up in the air (leading to the loss of one of NBC's brightest stars), CBS could benefit from the exodus of disgruntled Conan O'Brien fans to other late-night options.

Moreover, CBS hasn't been shuffling shows in and out of its prime-time lineups like some other networks. It boasts the stability of the CSI franchise, Two and a Half Men, and Criminal Minds along with runaway new hits like How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory. The bottom line is that many people watch these shows, leading to advertisers wanting to place ads during the shows.

Also, don't underestimate the role that the NFL plays in CBS's success. The company has so many promos for its own shows during the NFL games that carry-over viewers are bound to tune in for 60 Minutes or Cold Case.

The question is whether the stock is headed to the $16 level like Jefferies thinks? Honestly, it could very well be, provided the shares can continue their current run. After bottoming in early 2009, shares of CBS have trotted higher and are currently resting on support from their 10-week moving average. What's more, the shares seem to have that singular (and may I add creepy) eye locked on the $16 level. The shares have backed off a bit, so a run higher may be difficult, but it is not out of the question. Should the stock make it to the $16 level, it could find a bit of resistance. This level acted as support in the past, and prior levels of support will often provide resistance when given the chance.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 12:28 PM

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