Why Money Magazine Got It Right (Mostly)

As we move gradually closer to a stable economy where retail investors are again ready to enter the markets, we see a lot written about which stocks, sectors, and investment types are smart bets for future growth.

Money Magazine recently ran a piece in their Investor's Guide 2010 series entitled "10 Stocks That Can Keep Running," which offers three areas in which the markets are likely to be solid in the coming years. This author's opinion is they were mostly right. But there needs to be a little more explanation for the average retail investor.


The author (Pat Dorsey of Morningstar) addressed these three areas as likely winners: Blue Chips, Dividend Investing and Healthcare. That's one type of company, one investment strategy and one market sector, respectively.

Blue chips

Most investors agree with the sentiment that the blue chip stocks will again find favor. Blue chip stocks are those of large, well established companies. Such stocks usually have decades of earnings history and typically grow at a slow but steady rate over time. The thirty stocks used in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are considered to be in this category, as are many of the S&P 500 stocks.

These stocks reigned supreme for years, but at the height of the dot-com boom everyone began looking for fast and furious profits and the quest for quick winners overtook many retail and institutional investors. While the bust in the early part of this decade tempered that mentality some, the run-up of the markets from 2003 through 2007 again offered plenty of big gains over a short period of time with smaller-cap stocks.

Many Americans had the whole of their investments in the form of 401(k) or IRA plans, and many of the mutual fund products in these accounts were invested more aggressively in stocks with potential for big gains, and less so in the old blue chips.

But the downturn since early 2008 may have changed all that. This fall was especially painful for many, as all asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities) took at dive and sliced many portfolios in half. It also represented the second major "correction" in less than a decade. It's logical to assume that many investors, fearing another major down-turn, will find peace of mind in bigger companies with solid reputations and histories.

And there's no time like the present. Blue chips are a relatively good value now, but don't expect that to be the case should the market flock to them as a safe-haven.

The article mentions Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Sysco Corporation (SYY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) specifically, and that's a pretty good batch. But don't get lured into a false sense of security. Blue chip stocks still carry risk, albeit not as much as smaller stocks. Keep in mind that General Motors was at the top of the list less than two years ago.

Dividend Investing

Talk of blue chip stocks is a great segue into the article's next growth opportunity: dividend investing. Dividend investing, similarly lost its lustre during the boom and bust cycles of the last ten years or so. But smart investors never stopped holding good dividend paying stocks in their portfolios. Many of the big blue chips are consistent dividend payers.

Those impacted least by the recent downturn were those who had a portfolio full of stocks that still paid dividends, even in the hard times. Think The Coca-Cola Company (KO) as an example. In some cases, the dividend earnings were enough to cover all losses in the underlying value of the stock. In all cases, it helped stem the bleeding.

The article mentions NSTAR (NST), Exelon Corporation (EXC), Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) and Realty Income Corp. (O) as good candidates. I add the aforementioned Coca-Cola and Exxon, as well as The Home Depot, Inc. (HD). It's also smart to find ETFs which pay dividends as an alternative to mutual funds.

And on the flip side, be aware that many stocks never, or rarely pay dividends. Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is one good example. Ford Motor Company (F), despite paying out regularly in the past, hasn't paid a dividend since 2006.

Healthcare

The article next addresses the healthcare stocks as a potential opportunity. In terms of risk, this is certainly the recommendation with the best chance to go awry, and hence the "mostly" appendage to this article's title.

There's no doubt healthcare stocks have underperformed the markets in recent history. But that certainly doesn't guarantee the sector is poised to bounce back in the near future.

In fact, I would advise retail investors looking to grow their portfolios in a conservative fashion over the next three or four years to actually be wary of the sector. As government moves toward overhaul of the industry, these stocks could prove very volatile in the coming months. While the reforms may help some, such bets are speculative at best and are best suited for the part of your portfolio you're willing to lose on riskier investments.

Invest in yourself

The best advice I can give anyone looking to enter, or re-enter the markets is investing in a financial education. I'm not talking about getting a degree in accounting or paying for those high-priced investing seminars. I'm talking about spending the time it takes to make yourself financially literate and prepared to make smart decisions in choosing investments, brokers and planners.

There are plenty of free resources available to help you get there. Here are a few recommended sources:

This post was contributed via Seed.com, AOL's new platform for freelance writers.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 04:55 AM

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