Consider Kellogg, Because Breakfast-In Is 'In'


Kellogg Co (K) is a U.S. "frugal consumer" era survivor, hence I'm obviously
reiterating my buy rating for the company's shares, first recommended on April 13, 2009, at a price of $40. If you bought K in April 2009, you're up about 35%.

Look for Kellogg's FY2010 revenue to increase a decent 4% to 6%, aided by tolerable commodity cost increases, modest pricing power, and strategic/prudent new product launches.

Kellogg's wide geographic footprint also is encouraging: There's ample room for market share gains in the faster-growing, emerging-market regions of Latin America (8% of 2008 revenue) and Asia (6% of 2008 revenue).

Further, as noted, look for Kellogg to continue to benefit from the U.S. "frugal consumer" trend, as an increasing number of Americans eat breakfast at home, which right now is outweighing some sales attrition, due to the rise of generic substitutes. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for K are $3.19 to $3.62.

Technically, Kellogg's stock chart looks beautiful -- a staircase -- one in which the stock rarely touches the key, 50-day moving average. That ability to remain above the 50-day moving average indicates that institutional investors are not even waiting for the normal pull-back before adding to/establishing positions in K. The stock also recently cleared key, psychological resistance at $50. According to my analysis, Kellogg's shares are headed north.

2010 Outlook: Kellogg is a long-term play, but if you're looking to sell K within the year, take your profits after it rises to $63-64, if it fails to rise above $65.

Stock Analysis:
Kellogg Co is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in K now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your K position before March 2010. Sell/stop loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $27.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 12:03 PM

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