Apple (AAPL): Is the iPad a Reason to Buy?

"Apple and others have tried the tablet market before and been unable to build devices consumers liked using.

"But given the leaps smartphones have made -- the iPad has one button and a touchscreen keyboard, a familiar interface for Apple devotees -- it seems reasonable to conclude that a supersize iPhone, with access to apps, navigation and content, will deliver a user experience like the iPhones, which is to say a good one.

"Having said that, though, most people willing to chunk down a few hundred dollars for a smartphone already have one. People who love, love, love Apple products -- well, they already own a pricey Macintosh. Folks who have embraced e-books have bought a Kindle from Amazon.com (AMZN).

"Portability junkies can buy a pretty well-equipped netbook for less than $500. Everyone has a flat-screen TV. So one has to question whether Apple will be able to pack enough niftiness in this new product to make consumers say, 'I have to have that, too.'

"As to the comparisons to the Kindle DX, we would note that the iPad is backlit, making it tiresome to read for long periods, unlike the Kindle, which uses eInk technology that is more akin to paper and less hard on the reader's eyes.

"People legitimately need cell phones. Most people probably consider a television a necessity, along with a computer. But a portable device on which to watch movies and read the newspaper and listen to music -- and which costs as much as $829 -- is a wholly nonessential luxury purchase. It is a digital Harley-Davidson.

"Some 'early adapters' will buy the tablet. Because of the uptrend in handhelds since the BlackBerry built one people found useful, consumers are more amenable to the iPad idea than they were in the era of the Apple Newton (a handheld from the early 1990s) or Bill Gates' tablet PC, circa 2001. Even so, it's unlikely the iPad will achieve the mass following of the iPod or the iPhone.

"Will it have a significant effect on Apple's revenue? A million units at an average $650 each is $650 million. That estimate would put the tablet at roughly half Apple's music sales, which amounted to $1.2 billion last quarter.

"Apple booked $5.5 billion in iPhone sales -- 35.1% of revenue -- and sold $4.5 billion worth of computers. The iPod brought in another $3.4 billion.

"So for this new product to have a meaningful effect on sales and earnings that would translate into a significant increase in Apple's share price, the tablet would need to be an absolute home run. The odds that the tablet will come anywhere near iPhone sales, which totaled 8.7 million last quarter, seem remote.

"Overall, investors who are interested in a high-tech company that's always on the cusp of the Next Big Thing and can post impressive earnings results can do no better than Apple.

"Last quarter Jobs & Co. posted a revenue gain of +32% and earnings growth of +50%. Apple consistently exceeds expectations, and I don't think there's any danger of that trend stopping. It's a great company.

"It's a mistake to buy AAPL for quick gains from the tablet. A far better approach is to buy AAPL for its genius corps' proven ability to innovate and its managers' ability to deliver standout financial results."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stocks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.