We all knew News Corp.'s (NWS) Avatar would cede the top spot to some film someday. To be honest, I didn't think Sony's (SNE) Dear John would be the one to do it.
According to Box Office Mojo, John grossed roughly $32 million at domestic theaters. That was more than enough to put the sci-fi flick in second place. However, no one should feel sad for News Corp.; Avatar's worldwide haul now stands at over $2.2 billion.
There's an interesting comment from News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch in this article over at BusinessWeek.com. He says he would like to release the home-video version of Avatar "as soon as possible."
I would love to see Murdoch go against the grain and pull the film from theaters earlier than expected and rush a DVD to market. I'm not saying to do it this week, but remember that media companies are experimenting with multiple distribution models and are contending with a weak DVD market that is extremely expensive to promote. Thought experiment: what if Avatar were to be pulled from theaters the first week of March, and it showed up on Hulu.com before the disc hit retail shelves? Hulu, after all, is sick of giving content away for free. Imagine charging $7 per view on the site; what would the financial results be? Hollywood has long talked about collapsing windows and taking increasing control over the fate of its portfolios. And when you think about it, small films might not be best suited for radical moves such as the one I'm brainstorming here today. An Avatar would lend itself to this thinking. Of course, Murdoch probably wouldn't want to share the spoils. Besides News Corp., Hulu is a venture supported by Disney (DIS), General Electric's (GE) NBC Universal, and Providence Equity Partners. Still, News Corp. should consider some sort of pre-DVD release through digital channels. No matter what, the studio should end Avatar's run earlier rather than later to maximize the post-theatrical potential of the project.
The other big story of the weekend centers on Lions Gate Entertainment's (LGF) third-place showing with From Paris with Love. The media is buzzing at how awful the $8 million opening is. Indeed, for an action film starring John Travolta, less than a double-digit debut is decidedly dreadful. Once again proves the somewhat new adage in Tinsel Town: stars no longer guarantee huge returns.
I covered News Corp.'s earnings last week. I liked the report, and I still find the stock compelling on downturns. I hope Murdoch is serious when he says he wants Avatar on video in quick fashion. It might be a shareholder-friendly strategy.
Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-10-2010 @ 6:54PM
James Williams said...
I've heard that the Avatar DVD will be out very soon to make the most of the hype and buzz surrounding the movie. They'll also wait for a while after the DVD has been release and then announce the 3D Avatar DVD (or blu-ray) just t make even more money! See http://www.avatardvd.co.uk/ for info. They reckon that i'll definitely be released and (apparently) they have industry insiders who are in the know!