The numbers are looking good for January: both US home construction and industrial production rose.
Here are the stats:
- The Commerce Department reported that housing starts climbed 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted 591,000 annual rate.
- Housing starts and apartment construction were both up in January.
- Apartment construction rose 9.2% to 107,000
- Housing starts climbed 1% in the South, 10% in the Northeast, and 8.9% in the West. The Midwest saw a drop of 3.2%.
The Federal Reserve reported the industrial production rose .9% in January, led by car and car parts.
Overall, the US economy expanded for the second straight quarter in the final months of 2009.
Both exports and imports rose. Unfortunately there is some inflation in the pipeline. Here are those numbers:
- Prices of imported goods rose 1.4% in January, higher than expected.
- Fuel import prices rose 5.3%
- Food prices increased 1.3%, the highest jump in five months.
Of course, the Fed will tell you that inflation is under control when they release the consumer price index which excludes food and energy. The CPI is a real joke and should be abolished or revised to include food and energy. This is where we spend most of our money. The government excludes food and energy because it would need to pay out larger Social Security payments if food and energy were included in the CPI. Social Security payments are tied to the cost of living (COLA).
Nevertheless, the numbers indicate a slow, steady improvement in the economy.
Did you see higher fuel and food prices this winter?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-17-2010 @ 6:37PM
william lindblad said...
I see you also know the difference between "inflation" and "core inflation". Yes, it is a joke, but there is some sense to this separation when you consider that the "core" of energy& food is an area much more prone to major price change.
I also think that there will be substantial hikes in the food area, not due to harvests, as they are good, but due to GAP as the bureaucratic end of this is, in my humble opinion, a nightmare. I think that the 60 million I have discussed with another is going to be more like ten times as much. If this is anything like the U.N.'s Haiti, we in deep doo-doo.
As to the balance - good news. Of course I have a lot of company when it comes to not believing stats. I have a lot of trouble with the "good news" as this economy is at least 70% predicated on consumer spending. If the general population is either out of work or under pressure from debt, spending is going to be of necessity. While this is a big country and we certainly have many people with means and secure employment, they are also not the majority. When one looks at this equation on a size of plus and minus it looks like a square peg in a round hole.
As Farragut said "damn the torpedoes". Worked for him!
2-17-2010 @ 10:43PM
Gary E. Sattler said...
I do actually believe these numbers, but I take them with a big grain of salt.
In answer to your question; Yes the heating and feeding index has increased at our home.
Durable goods orders were up in January. Cash for Clunkers took some edge off vehicle inventories late in '09. Tax incentives have helped the housing market to move forward a notch. Thus, it makes sense that manufacturing production and housing starts are up...slightly.
However, will the effects of these upticks be longstanding and are they indicative of tangible improvement, or are they quick and temporary puffs of opportunism?
I think it's too early to judge. I expect that by the end of April we'll have a much better idea where this economy is going.
For now, things seem to be looking up, but I'm not even starting to feel comfortable yet.
2-18-2010 @ 6:09AM
al coholic said...
Better to look at these "improved over last January's" numbers in a longer perspective if you want to see how staticically meaningless that 2.8% improvement in housing starts really is.
Don't believe me? Check out the attached longer term graph.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SZwO2xU4cpI/AAAAAAAAEiY/FEbpwfLO4fM/s1600/HousingStartsFeb2009.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.visualizingeconomics.com/category/recessions/&usg=__7J30NgzdxnVhYbrPB4Qh8aCvwRw=&h=756&w=1032&sz=173&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=IuSy47QNHyU6LM:&tbnh=110&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgraph%2Bof%2Bjanuary%2Bus%2Bhousing%2Bstarts%2Bfor%2Bthe%2Blast%2Bten%2Byears%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG%26um%3D1