What Is Warren Buffett Telling You?

Is Warren Buffett signaling his expectation of declining success for oil investments? I believe that he is. This latest 13F report reveals that Buffett has reduced Berkshire's positions in both ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). I think Mr. Buffett is expecting that a confluence of factors is going to put downward pressure upon oil company profits. Simply think of XOM and COP in the context of carbon, and you'll see where this is going.

On an ancillary note, I believe that the context of Mr. Buffett's oil and rail moves do signal that a bullish stance on coal might become appropriate.

I believe that Berkshire's moves on health care positions are a reaction to a market sector which is developing instability from without. Mr. Buffett saw to the dumping of both WellPoint (WLP) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The future of health care service providers is quite uncertain these days, and with government intervention on the horizon, I think Mr. Buffett deemed that a timely exit might be prudent.

Lastly, I think that Warren Buffett has sent a subtle signal that he believes the retail sector's problems are far from over. Berkshire reduced it's positions in CarMax (KMX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), while holding firm in Nestle and Kraft (KFT). One notable exception to Berkshire's apparent retail down tick is an increased position in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), which seems odd as the company posted negative same store sales figures recently.

Yes, Warren Buffett has been quoted as stating that he believes the worst of the recession is behind us, but we all know that real economic success is tied to consumer affluence. That proposition is most certainly a long way off. Warren Buffett is leaning toward the corporate side, favoring big banks and finance companies. He's definitely leaning away from the consumer side of things.

But of course, that's just my opinion.