Over the past couple of years, one of the most troubling aspects of the economy has been the ailing housing market, and in particular the large volumes of homes that have fallen victim to the foreclosure crisis. Finally we get some evidence that things may be moving in the right direction again.
While no one will argue that we are out of the woods just yet, it does appear as things are at least starting to recovery slightly.
The Mortgage Bankers Association released its quarterly report on foreclosures Friday, and showed that the number of people falling behind on their mortgages shrank, but at the same time, the number of homes falling three or more payments behind did continue to grow.
During the fourth quarter, the number of borrowers that fell at least one payment behind on their mortgages fell to 3.6%. During the previous quarter that figure was up at 3.8%.
While the drop is encouraging, there are still plenty of reasons for concern. It is nice that new foreclosures may be slowing, but there are still millions of homes that are already in the foreclosure process. More than 15% of homeowners that have a mortgage have missed at least one payment or are already in foreclosure. This is a record, and what is worse is that in nearly 50% of these situations the homeowners are at least three months behind. Typically this level is below 20%.
What is really encouraging is that the fourth quarter is typically the worst quarter in terms of foreclosures. With higher heating bills and holiday spending stretching homeowners to the limit, it is typically the time of year when people fall behind on their mortgages. The fact that new foreclosures fell during this historically tough period indicates that things really could be turning around, but we will still have to wait and see just how the trend continues in the current quarter.
Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist, stated that the current numbers should provide "growing confidence the size of the problem now is about as bad as it will get."
So we get a little of both good and bad news in the report, but definitely a reason to think things have started to improve.
What are your thoughts on the housing market and foreclosure crisis in particular? Have we seen the worst, or should we expect to see new foreclosures start to rise again the months to come?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-04-2010 @ 6:12PM
Malik11397 said...
I hope the annuncment of 1.5 billion for homeowners help in five states should be very conducive to stabilized the home market especially in Nevada. It is a step in the right direction
Malik
www.fastbankruptcynevada.com
2-20-2010 @ 12:48PM
Tom said...
Once the homebuyer credit dissapears and lending finally tightens, requiring buyers to put down more than 5%, then there will be an oversupply of homes and the demand will be low because not many people will have the 20% that should be required to put down on a house. If we continue to let people put down 5% on houses we are just delaying another bubble. This creates an artificially high demand because you don't necessarily have to be fiscally responsible to save 5% of the purchase price for a downpayment. This is why prices increased 50% between 1995 & 2005 - there are A LOT more people that can save $10,000 to put down on a house vs. $40,000.
You can save $10,000 without changing much, now $40,000 - that actually takes some budgeting & sacrificing...
2-20-2010 @ 1:30PM
kyarram said...
During the Christmas period, I remember the banks have not pursued the foreclosures because of the holiday season and the year end. And it still is only a 0.3 % drop from the previous quarter. Now once the federal stimulus for housing in different forms is over by April, and Majority of ARM's getting expired in the 3rd and 4th quarters its obvious whats going to happen in the coming days.
2-20-2010 @ 3:55PM
chex781391 said...
Allowing homeowners to borrow directly from the Fed at 1% would stop the foreclosures. Why do we allow bankers to borrow at .25%.
2-20-2010 @ 4:56PM
John said...
WOW!!! This news makes me want to jump right out their and buy a house!!!
2-21-2010 @ 1:49AM
BHarrison said...
The projections have been that foreclosures will substantially increase during 2010; and we are only in the beginning of the commercial real estate bust, which is projected to be worse than the residential housing bust. It's nice to try to be optimistic; but one also needs to be realistic. Allowing people to live in their residences rent/mortgage free for a year or longer only enriches them for their foolishness andpenalizes those whoe responsibly lived within their means with higher taxes (and lower property values) to support these deadbeats. A minimum of 20% downpayment should be required to purchase a home. Bailing out the irresponsible parties is only prolonging economic recovery.
2-21-2010 @ 8:55AM
richard said...
i have been in my home 17 years.i foolishly took out a second mortgage in1995 for 40,000 dollars today i owe 51,000 dollars on that loan,never missed a payment until 2008 when i had to go on disability for copd.after i missed 1 payment they raised my interest from6% to 29:99 per cent payment whent fro 230 to 473 per month and this only covers the interest.this is why and paying on 1st mortgage people go into forclosure.
2-21-2010 @ 10:36AM
S said...
You can not set the value of a home that was built in 1940 on the same criteria that you would value a newly build home. People, lenders and government agencies have the notion that just because its a livable home you can price the dwelling on the same criteria that you would a newly built structure. Does it make any since that a home that was built in 1950 is worth the same square foot price as brand new home. You have to be nuts.
Our notion of something old being worth the same as new has to be mashed out of our current thinking and the people have to get a grip with reality. If homes were priced according to the true value people would not be in a position of being up side down on the price of the home and less likely to be in a position that they have to walk away. Fix the way you establish value of a home and you will fix most of the problems that face this industry.
Stability in any market breeds better profits for everyone. Instability only breeds profits for the greedy.
2-21-2010 @ 7:22PM
rick cannon said...
If the economy can produce more jobs there will be more of a demand for the oversupply of homes. We need tax cuts to produce jobs not government spending.