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One has to like the stock trend of server/deskstop virtualization software solutions designer Citrix Systems (CTXS), first discussed here on June 16, 2009, at a price of $33.09.Back in June 2009, the argument was forwarded that U.S. information technology spending would rise better than 4% and that institutional investors would hence look past CTXS's flatish FY2009 revenue to a near 10% gain in FY2010, and that's pretty much what has transpired.
Citrix also has appeal on the calculation that, moving forward, that demand regarding employees' ability to conduct business in remote/mobile locations will increase, and it's a longer-term, secular trend, to CTXS's benefit.
The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for APSG are $1.89 to $2.12. Each EPS looks a tad low, according to my analysis.
Technically, Citrix's stock chart is strong -- an uptrend, and one that only briefly touches the key, 50-day moving average, a sign that institutional investors (IIs) are taking advantages of dips to add to/establish positions in CTXS. However, the stock will encounter psychological resistance at $50, and this may cap gains in 2010.
2010 Outlook: I view Citrix as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell CTXS within the year, it's probably best to not purchase CTXS, as the 1-year risk/return is not favorable.
Stock Analysis: I consider Citrix Systems to be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 25% position in CTXS now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 50% of my CTXS position before April 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at: $17.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for APSG are $1.89 to $2.12. Each EPS looks a tad low, according to my analysis.
Technically, Citrix's stock chart is strong -- an uptrend, and one that only briefly touches the key, 50-day moving average, a sign that institutional investors (IIs) are taking advantages of dips to add to/establish positions in CTXS. However, the stock will encounter psychological resistance at $50, and this may cap gains in 2010.
2010 Outlook: I view Citrix as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell CTXS within the year, it's probably best to not purchase CTXS, as the 1-year risk/return is not favorable.
Stock Analysis: I consider Citrix Systems to be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 25% position in CTXS now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 50% of my CTXS position before April 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at: $17.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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