Poll: Global Economic Confidence Dips on Greece's Debt Woes


A new Bloomberg News survey indicated another modest setback on the global economic front as confidence in the world economy fell in March on concern that the lateral effects from Greece's budget crisis would hurt the recovery.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index (BPGCI) fell to 53.8 in March from a record-high 54.9 in February, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. However, the index remained above 50 for the eighth consecutive month. Readings above 50 mean there were more optimists than pessimists in the survey. The index was at 66.6 in January.

By region, U.S. respondents' confidence in the world's largest economy rose to 48.5 in March from 41.3 in February. Western Europeans' confidence in their economy declined to 41.0 from 49.8 -- a decline that was roughly in-sync with the subdued outlook amid an uncertain euro-zone bailout plan for Greece and concern about the Mediterranean nation's ability to follow-through with budget cuts. Asia's confidence index rose to 75.9 from 70.8.

The survey of 1,612 Bloomberg users was conducted March 1 to March 5.

Economic Analysis: No surprise, regarding the top-line index's dip or the plunge in the Europe component. That said, investors need to keep in mind that the Greece issue is thoroughly manageable. Or as former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker put it, it's not "insuperable." The euro-zone has the resources to assist Greece's fiscal restructuring by offering debt guarantees, but it will require substantial economic and financial sacrifices by Greece and also result in considerable job dislocation.

Further, although the BPGCI is a relatively new index, I've liked it from the start, due to the insights it provides regarding the mood/stance/attitudes of institutional investors: many Bloomberg users are institutional investors -- the key players in financial markets.

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