Emerging Markets Seen Leading 2010 Global Air Travel Rebound

"We are seeing a definite two-speed industry. Asia and Latin America are driving the recovery. The weakest international markets are North Atlantic and intra-Europe which have continuously contracted since mid-2008," Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's director general and CEO said, in a statement. The IATA represents 240 airline companies worldwide.

And the good news continued in to 2010: Asia-Pacific and Latin American carriers posted international passenger demand gains of 6.5% and 11% in January, respectively. Meanwhile, North America and Europe posted more-modest gains of 2.1% and 3.1%, respectively.

What's more, the IATA now expects passenger demand, which fell 2.9% in 2009, to increase 5.6% in 2010, up from the previous estimate of 4.5% growth. Cargo demand, which plunged 11.1% in 2009, is expected to surge 12% in 2010, up substantially from the previous estimate of 7% growth.

Sector Analysis: The wild-card, or unknown variable, in the above? You guessed it: jet fuel prices, which are determined in large part by the price of oil. The IATA now expects 2010 oil prices to average $79 per barrel, up from the previous estimate of $75, and a 2009 average of $62.

The IATA's oil price forecast may prove to be a tad low. Oil traded down 5 cents to $82.04 on Thursday afternoon, and given the dollar's value and likely rising auto use in emerging markets and in the U.S., the argument that oil will average roughly $79 in 2010, looks, at this juncture, to be a pretty thin argument.